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FanEx Analysis
Draft
Review
| Rules | Transactions
Draft
Rounds
1 | 2
| 3 | 4
| 5 | 6
| 7 | 8
| 9 | 10
11 | 12 | 13
| 14 | 15
| 16 | 17
| 18
Round 3
   
   
  
3.01
|
RB Ronnie Brown (R)
QB: RB:
Tomlinson Taylor RBrown WR:
TE:
PK: |
Kellogg
Analysis
 |
3.02
|
RB
Stephen Jackson
QB: RB: Alexander
Jackson
WR:
CJohnson
TE:
PK:
|
Houston
Pitzer
Analysis
|
3.03
|
QB
Donavan McNabb
QB:
Culpepper McNabb RB:
Westbrook WR: TE:
PK: |
Butler
Analysis
|
3.04
|
RB Lamont Jordan
QB: RB: Holmes
Jordan WR: Harrison
TE:
PK: |
Tinker
Analysis
|
3.05
|
RB Chris Brown
QB: RB: James
CBrown WR: Owens TE:
PK: |
Holm
Analysis
|
3.06
|
 Trade
Analysis
TE Tony Gonzales
QB: RB: DDavis
WR: TE:
Gonzales PK: |
Hollar
Analysis
|
3.07
|
TE Antonio Gates
QB: RB: Barber
RJohnson WR: TE:
Gates
PK: |
Del
Pilar
Bonini
Analysis
|
3.08
|
RB Tatum Bell
QB: RB: McAllister
Dillon Bell WR: TE:
PK: |
Hickerson
Analysis
|
3.09
|
RB Carnell Williams
(R)
QB: RB: DDavis
CWilliams WR: TE:
Gonzales PK:: |
Hollar
Analysis
|
3.10
|
WR Torry Holt
QB: RB:
McGahee Lewis WR:
Holt TE:
PK |
Dolfi
Walls
Analysis
|
3.11
|
RB Cedric Benson
(R)
QB: RB:
AGreen KJones Benson WR:
TE:
PK: |
Cahill
Analysis
|
3.12
|
WR Joe Horn
QB:
Manning RB:
Martin WR:
Horn TE:
PK |
O'Leary
Analysis
|
|
 3.01 RB
Ronnie Brown (R)
By Greg Kellogg
Again, I was looking at quarterback and wide receiver but felt
that if I delayed taking my third running back here, the likelihood
of getting a starter would be nil. I selected Brown over
fellow rookies Carnell Williams and Cedric Benson because of
the lack of competition for his position. In Tampa, Williams
will have to beat out Michael Pittman and though he should do
so, Pittman will likely take away some carries and receptions.
In Chicago, Benson will have to contend with former first
round pick Thomas Jones. Again, I see some carries and
receptions at risk in this situation.
Brown has the disadvantage of
playing on a team that had a putrid offensive line in 2004.
For him to justify this pick, the line play will have to
improve.
But even with the existing
line, the combination of Sammy Morris, Travis Minor, Leonard
Henry and Lamar Gordon gained 1,116 yards on 322 carries and
scored nine touchdowns. These same players also caught 51
passes for 347 yards. Most, if not all, of that production
should go to Brown in 2005.
|
 3.02 RB
Stephen Jackson
By Houston | Pitzer
The future is now for Jackson, who takes over as the Rams'
primary runner this year. He is not the receiver that Marshall
Faulk was, but he should reach 1,200 yards rushing and be a
reliable scorer, given that he is the main option, including in
short-yardage, in the Rams' reliably high-scoring offense.
Jackson was the player we had targeted here back in the second
round, although there were other backs we also would have felt
comfortable taking. We knew that if we didn't take a second back
here, there wouldn't have been much left for us near the end of
the fourth round.
|
| Commissioner
Comments:
If you don't like this pick,
you're living in the past. Expect Marshall Faulk to be
treated like a relic this year, kind of a playing coach.
The Rams finally found their replacement to the future
Hall-Of-Famer last year, and Jackson is ready to take over.
Will it happen in Week One or Week Ten? Unsure, but with
Faulk's playing time decreasing steadily over the past couple
of years it's a lock that Jackson will be the lead back when
2005 is in the books.
While I might have taken Chris
Brown or Cadillac Williams here instead, Jackson is a terrific
player who is almost certain to be first-round material for
the 2006 fantasy season. He's more than serviceable as
this team's RB2.
|
Guest Comments:
Steven Jackson is a wonderful player that appears to be an
"up and comer". Marshall Faulk was the #1 pick in most
fantasy leagues for several years. The former NFL MVP is still
one of the best receiving backs
in football.
The smallish Faulk has 100 career TDs in the NFL and is always
an option Martz will consider in the redzone. Faulk only had 3
TDs in 2004, not because of Jackson though. Jackson only had 4.
Four years ago, the Rams runningbacks scored more than any
other backfield in the NFL. Which team shows up in 2005?
I would guess somewhere in the middle. Similar to Marcus Allen
in Kansas City, until Faulk retires he will pose a threat too
Jackson's TD totals. That and the receiving stats (at a point
per reception league)
trouble me a bit about this pick.
My biggest concern is that everyone has predicted Marshall's
demise and has acted as if last year was an uncharacteristically
poor season for him. It really wasn't. He only ran for 44 less
yards than in 2003. His rushing average over the previous 3
years is only
848 yards. He had more receptions in 2004 than in 2003. Since
being traded to the Rams, Marshall has never had more than 260
carries. The last 3 years he's averaged just above 200 carries.
That works out to him losing roughly 4 carries a game more
than
he previously did.
For some reason, us fantasy football folks have always been
obsessed with Faulk's backup. Jackson ran for 673 yards in 2004.
In 2003, Harris and Gordon combined for 553 yards. That's only
120 yards less in a season. Gordon would be traded to the
Dolphins
and not perform particularly well. Another previous supposed
great Faulk backup, Trung Canidate, did not do well in
Washington. Are we correct in embracing Steven Jackson this year
or is he the next
Faulk backup to appear better than he truly is?
Spin this one more time. Faulk had 195 carries in 2004. Suppose
Jackson gets that many and their roles "flip-flop".
Even with Jackson's gaudy 5 yard average, that is not 1000 yards
rushing for the season. I thought Gordon and Canidate were very
good hence, Jackson worries me.
|
 3.03 QB
Donavan McNabb
By Jim butler
Ok...everyone
can stop laughing and joking. You there, pick up that jaw! As
mentioned in my Culpepper analysis, I am approaching this
draft in quite the different direction than all the other
owners. By now most teams are stocked with 2 or possibly 3
runningbacks. This is pretty much status quo for this league,
as it seems most leagues are. I had actually targeted RB
Steven Jackson at this spot and had he been available, few
would have been laughing, however he was drafted one spot
ahead of me. My selection of McNabb was lead by the following:
He's
the last of what I consider the top 3 Quarterbacks (Daunte,
Peyton, McNabb) and most approach their number 2 QB with the
thought of covering a bye week. In this league your number 2
could be your number 1 on any given week dependant on who you
have on your roster. Twice last season, McNabb outscored
Culpepper by more than 20 points and Culpepper outscored
McNabb by the same margin in two weeks last year also, not to
mention the 40+ points Culpepper put up during McNabb's bye
week. Usually you don't stock up at QB with this in mind, but
the fun part about the FAD is that an owner will never find
himself saying, "I wish I had started so and so
instead!"
Have
I gone completely insane? Only the end of the season can tell,
but might as well have fun on my way there. At the least,
this selection should create a little bit of discussion for
the water cooler. :)
|
Guest
Patrick Brock Comments:
From
my understanding, this league takes the highest point total for
all the quarterbacks on your roster. Therefore, if
Culpepper gets only 10 pts one week, he can make up for it with
McNabb getting 20 pts. This does not make sense though.
With only one running back on the roster, it would only make
sense to fill your empty starter slots than take a back up in
the third round.
There are still some legitimate starting running backs available
like Lamont Jordan and Chris Brown. You could also even
justify a pick of Holt or even a popular rookie like Cadillac or
Benson. Unless there is a trade in the works, I think this
at least a strange pick if not a completely blown one. You can
only count one of their point totals a week. Now for a number
two running back, you are going to have to rely on a guy like
Bennett or Henry. These guys all have question marks (Are
they going to start? Are they going to split?, etc) If you are
going to reach here, why not reach and take TEs Gonzo or Gates?
|
 3.04 RB
Lamont Jordan
By Brady Tinker
This is quietly a nice pick-up for
the Raiders who have been searching for an every down back
that can stay healthy, catch passes and score in the red zone
for some time.
Norv Turner will love the 26 year
old Jordan - who is big, fast and hard to tackle on the first
hit.
He has good hands and runs north
and south with the football.
The Raiders offense will score
lots of points this year with Kerry Collins having both Moss
and Jerry Porter to look downfield to.
Jordan will stay
focused/interested on every play - he will put up very nice
fantasy numbers. The Raiders defense will be giving up
plenty of points - so Jordan and his offensive mates will be
in many fast paced games that offer lots of possessions for
each team.
|
 3.05 RB
Chris Brown
By Tony Holm
On the positive side, I was considering Chris Brown, Steven
Jackson, LaMont Jordan or Tatum Bell when taking TO back in the
2nd and two of them made it back. On the negative side I
took Chris Brown. His upright running style will get him
killed one of these days and that's because of his 6'3"
frame. That's too tall for a RB in the NFL as that body
will take a pounding. His hamstrings are fragile, his
ankles are scoped, there's rumor of Travis Henry. But for
now he's the starter and he will open the season that way.
The Titans want insurance as they really like what they see when
Brown is running the ball and I still expect Chris Brown to come
out of the gates hard and strong. And if, if, if, if he
makes it through unscathed, a pot of gold awaits.
Cutting Chris Brown's season in half, in the first half of the
2004 season he rushed for 810 yards and 5 TDs with some
receiving sprinkled in. If Chris Brown is able to make it
through, 1600 yards and double digit
touchdowns await. Another classic boom/bust pick I like so
much in the FAD.
If history serves, this is usually the point in every FAD draft
that I end up making a really dumb pick. Be warned.
|
 3.07 TE
Antonio Gates
By Del Pilar | Bonini
Who
We Took and Why:
After securing two RBs in
our first two picks we had a little more freedom with our third
selection. However, our initial choice of Kansas City Chiefs TE
Tony Gonzalez fell by the wayside when he was selected one spot
in front of us. While we’ll never know we did wonder if Tim
Holler was moving up because he’s familiar with our strategy
or if it was just coincidence. That move left us to select
Gates, who had a huge breakout season in 2004 to the tune of
almost 1,000 yards and 13 TDs. All things being equal, we
would’ve preferred Gonzo’s consistency, but we still like
Gates’ ability and explosiveness.
Other
Candidates Considered:
Once Gonzalez went we debated about whether or not it was too
early to select Gates, but we determined he would never make it
to our next pick. Then it became whether the drop from Gates to
the next tight end was big enough that we needed to select him
here in lieu of a third running back. We thought about the crop
of rookie running backs and Denver Broncos RB Tatum Bell, but
ultimately we felt securing one of the top two TEs made more
sense than drafting any of the available running backs as we
viewed them all as a bit of a reach at that point in the draft.
Current
Strategy:
With two RBs on roster we took a bit of a calculated risk
with our third selection. On one hand we’ve secured a scarce
fantasy position, but on the other hand we’ve left ourselves
open to having to reach for a shaky third RB with our next
selection if none of the players we wanted fall to us in the
fourth round. Our next pick could go a long way in determining
what kind of overall draft we have.
|
 3.08 RB
Tatum Bell
By
Jerome Hickerson
Well,
I got the guy I had targeted for this spot (targeted, that is,
after Chris Brown was taken one spot ahead of my original 3.06
spot.) So my trade downward turned out ok. But will this
selection pan out?
Bell
is a boom
or bust kind of guy. The Denver RB that you want tends to come
out of the darkness rather than from the limelight. And this
year, Bell is in the Denver limelight. So this
pick sort of goes against the trend.
The
real problem with taking the
Denver
starting RB
is that in
Denver
, when the
starter gets injured, the “temporary” replacement often
keeps the job. I decided to take this gamble for a couple of
reasons:
- Ron
Dayne?? I don’t think so. He may vulture some goal line
TDs, but he doesn’t worry me regarding taking the starting
job.
- Maurice
Clarett? I’m in
Ohio
less
than a hour from the Buckeyes…
so I saw a bit of Clarett. Granted, most of it was not on
the field. Unless Clarett has grown up a lot, I don’t see
him making a big impact this season. And I won’t be a fan
of his regardless. (Count me among most of the Buckeye fans
in that regard.)
So, under the circumstances, a late third round pick for Tatum
Bell seemed a worthwhile gamble. And it is a risk – but I feel
my first two rounds are solid so taking a reasonable, calculated
risk on a #3 RB seems acceptable |
 3.09 RB
Carnell Williams (R)
by Tim Hollar
Trade
Analysis
 |
O'Leary
gave up 3.09 (CWillams) + 6.04 + 7.09 + 11.09
|
Hollar
gave up 3.12 + 5.12 + 7.08 + 11.08 |
|
As much as I threw my trade offer
out to Shannon O'Leary on a lark, I wasn't actually mentally
prepared to make a selection when I saw it had been accepted!
I had braced my mind for selecting whoever fell to me.
When suddenly I was able to have my choice, I took Williams over
JJ Arrington and Cedric Benson because of skills dual threat capabilities,
his lofty draft position and the potential strength of the Tampa
Bay
offense. (Actually, I would have been happy with any
of the three.)
I suppose the scale tipper in taking Williams was a pre-draft
conversation I had with Dallas Morning News draft guru Rick
Gosselin, for The Guru Report. I asked him to pick
the perennial Pro Bowler from among the Big Three and he chose
the Cadillac which is good enough for me.
|
| Commissioner
Comments:
Obviously I'm not the only guy who
thinks the world of this Cadillac. I got the same
feeling watching him play for Auburn as I did with
Stephen Alexander years ago at rival Alabama; now Tim just has
to believe Coach Gruden won't leave Williams in learning mode
for a couple of years as they did with Alexander in Seattle.
Cadillac can glide, slide, and lay 'em to the side, and if QB
Brian Griese can continue his unexpected resurgence from 2004,
this guy could easily be the most productive rookie of 2005.
Easily worth the trade, which cost Tim next to nothing.
|
3.10 WR
Torry Holt
By Dolfi | Walls
Walls’
Take
–
I am very glad we got two RBs in the first two rounds. The
pickings were pretty slim in the RB department at this point.
There were some RBs who are not a bad value at this point in the
draft still available, but even more WRs who were much better
values left to us here. A third RB is a nice insurance policy,
and we may still go that way in the fourth round if a couple RBs
we like are still around (Oops, Benson just went), but they all
have question marks. We also kept in mind the hit or miss nature
of the scoring in the league and the mandatory 3 WR starters, so
making sure we got a very good WR1 was the choice we made here.
It
came down to Tory Holt or Joe Horn. Initially, I thought Holt
was the easy pick, but comparing him to Horn, it wasn’t as
easy as I thought. Their numbers were very similar, and their
teams are similar in a couple aspects:
1) Their offenses are better than their
defenses
2) They both have a good running game
So,
this means (to me anyway), that they have ground games that can
keep defenses honest; and that they will be in games where they
will have to play catch-up through the air. That’s nice when
you can get the primary target on teams like that.
Horn
and Holt should post very similar numbers again, and if you can
get either with the 10th
pick in the third round, do so.
Dolfi’s
Take
– We briefly toyed with a #3 RB here, but felt there were a
couple of great values at WR that we couldn’t pass up –
especially having to start 3 of them each week.
Torry
Holt and Joe Horn were heads and shoulders above the pack in my
mind. And it
wasn’t easy for me to make a decision between them either.
Last
year in total yards, Horn ranked #2 overall, with Holt at #4
overall. Pretty
darn close. Horn
had 1399 yards, Holt 1372.
Wow – really close again.
Let’s look at catches, especially since that’s part
of the FAD scoring system as well.
94 for Horn, 94 for Holt.
Umm… no help in making my decision there.
Ok, ok – the old stand-by, let’s check out TDs.
11 for Horn, 10 for Holt.
Hmm… not getting any clearer.
How about games where they caught over 100 yards in
passing? Holt tips
the scales at 6, and Horn got 5.
Damn – not much help there, either.
Horn only had 4 games where he caught less than 5 passes,
but Holt only had 3 games where he didn’t catch at least 5
passes. UGH! Comparing
these two is like trying to tell which of the Dawn triplets
I’d rather date!
So
in the end, it came down to one single, solitary difference
maker between these two for me… age.
Horn is 33 years old, and that’s getting up there for
an NFL player who’s name doesn’t start with “J” and end
with “erry Rice”. Holt
is a comparative youngster at 28.
I’m gonna have to go with the young(er) gun here, and
pick Holt – but honestly, you simply can’t go wrong with
either of these guys at this point in the draft.
|
Commissioner Comments:
Are you kidding me? Dolfi
& Walls get to go to war this year with McGahee, Jamal
Lewis, and Torry Big Play Holt? Wow. I wonder if
the league by-laws give the commish the right to bump an
owner and take over the team.
Probably not. Oh well, I'll
just have to settle for being happy for Chris & Tom, as
their roster thus far looks at least as good as anyone's.
I can't think of any good reason Holt would be only the fifth
wideout taken, except that he's clearly one of the top five.
Still, this smells like excellent value to me, averaging over
100 catches, 9 TDs, and 1400+ yds per year over the last
three seasons. Way out of Isaac Bruce's shadow, Holt is
as much of a sure thing as you'll find in the 3rd round of any
fantasy draft.
|
 3.11
RB Cedrick Benson (R)
By Duane Cahill
Somebody, somewhere out there is
asking, "Why would the Bears take Cedric Benson with
the #4 overall pick when Thomas Jones rushed for 950 yards
and seven touchdowns?"
I'm not one of those people.
In drafting Benson, the Bears get the workhorse, every-down
back that Jones never was in his career. As everyone
knows, Benson rushed for over 1000 yards in each of his four
seasons at Texas. He scored 19 TDs in his senior year,
so he has a nose for the end zone. He's got a great
work ethic (unlike his predecessor at UT) and will work hard
to succeed in the NFL. While Jones is the starter on
the depth chart at the time of this writing, coach Lovie
Smith has declared the competition open. However,
Benson is Smith's guy and you don't draft a running back at
pick #4 to allow him to sit on the bench. Benson will
be the starter.
And if you're into karma, here's a bit of trivia. Name
the last two running backs that the Bears drafted with the
#4 overall pick... . Gale Sayers and Walter Payton!
|
 3.12 WR
Joe Horn
Shannon O'Leary
Drafting
Joe Horn here in the end of the 3rd round isn’t
exactly the most exciting pick. When offered the trade down, I
did so because the guy I was wanting in the number nine position
of the 3rd round went at number eight. I was looking
at Tatum Bell all the way.
After
he was gone, I didn’t see a running back on the board that
jumped out at me. Being out of the country for the better part
of the season last year I was not too sure about the rookie
class. Although there appeared to be some decent choices here, I
felt they all came with some risks. I opted not to gamble too
much this early in the draft.
So
after making the trade, I started looking at the receivers. I
really thought Holt would slide, as others would grab up the
rookie running backs. This did back fire on me, but I am not
complaining about getting Horn.
What
I get in Horn is one of 16 players to score over 300 points in
this scoring system. All right he was number 16, but he is still
in the 300 club. He was the number 2 receiver in this system
last year. I think he did this somewhat quietly. Of course I was
out of touch for the end of last year,,,, ummm Hanging out in
Amsterdam
.
If
you look at Joe’s number’s they were double digit every week
with the exception of one. Those are the kind of numbers I am
looking for in this draft.
Joe
signed a new deal this year, and really is one of the
cornerstones of the Saints offense. Horn had the best season of
his ten year career last year posting 1399 yards and 11 TDs. I
see no reason not to expect close to those numbers again. I sure
do think the Saints will after rewarding him with the new 41
million dollar contract.
|
| Commissioner
Comments:
I have to wonder if Shannon is
quite as happy now with his trade out of the 3.09 slot.
Cadillac Williams was taken there and Torry Holt right after,
leaving last year's FanEx commish with a player who I'd think
is clearly a notch below either of those. While Horn has
been consistently productive as a Saint, he's no Torry Holt,
and his numbers in recent history reflect that. With the
Saints growing weary of QB Aaron Brooks' lackadaisical
attitude, this streaky team seems to be on the slide.
Still, having said all that, it
looks like Horn may have been the best player available for
Team O'Leary at this point. With Peyton Manning and
Curtis Martin leading the way, I might have been inclined to
bolster my backfield, but there's just not much left there by
this group of RB piranhas. That leaves not much, so
again, it looks for the moment like the trade out of 3.09 hurt
Shannon.
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