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FanEx Analysis
Draft
Review
| Rules | Transactions
Draft Rounds
1 | 2
| 3 | 4
| 5 | 6
| 7 | 8
| 9 | 10
11 | 12 | 13
| 14 | 15
| 16 | 17
| 18
Round 1
   
   
  
1.01
|
RB LaDainian Tomlinson
QB: RB:
Tomlinson WR:
TE:
PK: |
Kellogg
Analysis
 |
1.02
|
RB Shaun Alexander
QB: RB: Alexander
WR:
TE:
PK: |
Houston
Pitzer
Analysis
|
1.03
|
QB Daunte Culpepper
QB:
Culpepper RB:
WR:
TE:
PK: |
Butler
Analysis
|
1.04
|
RB Priest Holmes
QB: RB: Holmes
WR:
TE:
PK: |
Tinker
Analysis
|
1.05
|
RB Edgerrin James
QB: RB: James
WR:
TE:
PK: |
Holm
Analysis
|
1.06
|
RB Deuce McAllister
QB: RB: McAllister
WR:
TE:
PK: |
Hickerson
Analysis
|
1.07
|
RB Tiki Barber
QB: RB: Barber
WR:
TE:
PK: |
Del
Pilar
Bonini
Analysis
|
1.08
|
RB Dominic Davis
QB: RB:
DDavis WR:
TE:
PK: |
Hollar
Analysis
|
1.09
|
QB Payton Manning
QB:
Manning RB:
WR:
TE:
PK: |
O'Leary
Analysis
|
1.10
|
RB Willis McGahee
QB: RB:
McGahee WR:
TE:
PK: |
Dolfi
Walls
Analysis
|
1.11
|
RB Ahman Green
QB: RB:
AGreen WR:
TE:
PK: |
Cahill
Analysis
|
1.12
|
RB Clinton Portis
QB: RB:
Portis WR:
TE:
PK: |
Cannon
Analysis
|
|
 1.01 RB
Tomlinson
By Greg Kellogg
There's only two rules to follow
when picking first overall in a redraft league. Rule number
one - take the best running back in the game. Rule number two
- don't screw up.
Because you won't pick until
the last pick of the second round, the first player you take
has to be someone you can depend on all year long. In FanEx,
we utilize the WCOFF scoring model and it awards a point per
reception as well as the normal yardage and TD points.
LaDainian Tomlinson is a fine
example of a very consistent player. He has topped 300 carries
and 50 receptions in every year he has been in the league.
Last season he had a career best 18 TDs (17 rushing). And even
though his total yards dipped from his two seasons, he still
topped 1700 which included 11 games over 100 total yards and
14 with at least one TD (including four straight with two).
Bottom line is with the contract squabbles of Edgerrin James
and Shaun Alexander and the health issues of Priest Holmes
Tomlinson seems like the best, and safest, pick to make.
|
Commissioner
Comments:
You know, a first look at the FF landscape of 2005 is
like the opening scenes of an episode of CSI: More
questions than answers.
In fact, once we get beyond the Chargers RB, there are indeed
nothing but questions. With everything having improved
dramatically in San Diego last year and with nothing but solid
results from his first few years in the league, the 21st century
LT is easily the safest pick in this year's draft.
Martyball depends on his success, and with the Bolts' passing
game and defense on the rise you can quite easily expect he'll
be at or near the top in rushing yet again this season.
|
 1.02 RB
Shaun Alexander
By Houston | Pitzer
Alexander is the surest thing in the NFL after LaDainian
Tomlinson. He is the only player with at least 16 total TDs in
each of the last four seasons. And even though the Seahawks
weren't interested in paying him huge money, he returns to an
almost perfect situation to continue his success. He is as good
as money in the bank.
|
Commissioner
Comments:
The accomplished team of Houston & Pitzer could be said
to have made a brave pick here, but where else are they to go?
With LT off the board everyone is a question mark, but perhaps
the least questions relate to the tailback of the Seahawks.
This superstar was one yard short of the rushing title last year
and there is every reason to expect continued success...except
for that pesky contract issue. Houston & Pitzer are
proceeding under the assumption that he will come in, as almost
every veteran does under these circumstances, so it's not as
risky a pick as one might think by reading current headlines.
Expect another 1500 yds or so from Alexander this season.
|
 1.03 QB
Daunte Culpepper
By Jim Butler
Having
sat out the last few seasons of the FAD, I decided to take a
rather different, some would even say radically different,
approach to this draft. One thing that really makes the FAD
interesting is that there are no roster moves with regards to
starters, it's all about the player with the most points at
that position. If you look back in the years prior to 2004 in
the FAD you will see that the top scorers are Runningbacks.
Hence the flood of RB selections you will see as this draft
moves through the first few rounds. My approach to this pick
was pure points. Last season, with the new emphasis on DB
contact in the NFL, Daunte Culpepper out distanced all other
point getters by almost 100 points for the season.
Some
would say and have said that without Randy Moss,
Culpepper's production will falter. One must remember that
Moss missed a good chunk of games last season which I believe
was to the benefit of Culpepper in that it forced him to
use his other receivers. For the weeks that Moss was healthy,
he averaged 28 points per week while without Moss he averaged
21 points per week. I really don't think that the Viking
offense is going to change with the exit of Moss, so I at
least expect at least the 21 point per week Culpepper and
given the player totals from last year, that would still put
him in the top 3 for points.
|
Commissioner Comments:
Wow. Jim Butler is
operating in serious contrarian mode here. Our little
league is known for being ravenous for first-round RBs,
yet Jim has gone way out on a limb with not only a QB, but a
QB with some risk attached.
Can Culpepper be the same kind of statistical force without
Randy Moss? I mean, Nate Burleson is as productive as
I expected, having been an accomplished collegiate, and the
rookie Troy Williamson bears a physical resemblance to Moss,
and there's no reason to expect the style of the Vikings
offense to change with Moss gone, but the fact remains: One
of the game's elite receivers is gone, and
Culpepper's productivity (our league's #1 scorer in 2004) depended
quite often on playing Toss It Up For Randy. Butler is
obviously hoping Toss It Up For Troy is just as much fun.
|
 1.04 RB
Priest Holmes
By Brady Tinker
The upside is too much to pass up. Play
to win I say and the Chiefs seem to be set ready to succeed
as a team this year. Dick Vermeil is done after this year
- this offense is aging but knows how to move the ball and score
points and Holmes is a TD machine that rarely leaves the field.
Trent Green has become a very good QB and Gonzalez at TE make
defenses honor the passing game as well.
The offensive line in KC is the best in
the NFL - they are very active and Holmes has an unbelievable
amount of patience while waiting for his blockers.
Holmes age and durability are a question
but I believe he and his teammates will realize this is their
last shot at winning big and come through...the defensive
additions will help get them the ball in better spots on the
field, not to mention a little more often
|
Commissioner
Comments:
The "new" has
kind of worn off of the game's most accomplished current
undrafted free agent find. Does anyone remember that Dick
Vermeil was once ridiculed by most know-it-alls (myself
included) for putting Holmes and Trent Green front and center in
his offense when he took over back in 2001? At this point
no one doubts the Good Father, and Mr. Tinker is in the position
of watching him run rampant again.
It's almost a surprise he slid this far, but having missed some
time to injury in the past couple of seasons there is now a
history that gives one pause to consider. Regardless, with
no expectations of offensive change in KC and with Holmes's
backups gone (Blaylock to the Jets) and a bust (Larry
"Diaper" Johnson), another phenomenal season could
well be about to begin. Looking at the available players,
no RB looks able to provide such an upside. |
 1.05 RB
Edgerrin James
By Tony Holm
There were three backs that interested me in this draft,
Tomlinson, Alexander and Edge. Preparing for this draft I
had Willis McGahee penciled in at this spot as I like his
potential for TD points and dang it would have been fun getting
shelled for the pick. When Culpepper went at 1.03 I
figured I'd get jammed between that usual rock and hard place
and be staring at Priest Holmes with this selection. Not
to say any of the picks above me were bad picks, they're not,
just for my personal tastes, I was glad to welcome Edgerrin
James to the team as my workhorse.
Last year Manning was chasing a record and Tony Dungy doesn't
mind helping his players go for them. This season I think
we'll see a little less throwing and a little more running.
The Colts need to figure out how to get over the hump as they've
been playoff darlings for a while now and they realize they have
to tweak their scheme. That will cause the Colts to look
at D a little more and that also means that there will be a few
more running plays in the book to help the D out as the Colts
try to finally find a Super Bowl balance. Perhaps enough
to make a 2-3 TD improvement for Edge which puts him at or near
the top of the RB heap. If I don't get the extra
production then I'll be fine with his traditional big game week
in and week out.
I like that he's further removed from surgery, had a great year
last year by all accounts and the system will buy a lot of
opportunity. He was the #1 fantasy RB not too long ago and he's
still young enough. It's possible
we see him return to that status.
I think there's a drop-off after the RBs already selected and I
was glad to get one of them. Now if JJ Stokes just stays
on the board for my next pick everything will be rosy with the
world.
|
 1.06 RB
Deuce McAllister
By Jerome Hickerson
McAllister enters the 2005 season coming off an injury troubled
2004. While Deuce played in 13 games, he was limited in several
of those games. He still managed almost 1150 total yards and 8
scores in the limited action. He faces a limited threat from the
bench and an offensive coordinator change that should benefit
him as
New Orleans
is likely to look to simplify the offense behind a more run
oriented attack. In 2005 fantasy drafts, as you get into the
middle of the first round, trading downward (as I tried to do)
or a safe pick seems to be your best option. I feel like
McAllister was a safe choice at this point.
|
Commissioner
Comments:
I can remember the buzz about the
Deuce when he came out of the unlikely NFL state of
Mississippi. Good size, speed, and hands, the scouts
raved. We looked forward to his rookie entry since his
early NCAA years, yet he was dinged up an awful lot in school
and there was severe concern he couldn't handle the beating
the pros would put on him.
But heavens to mergatroid, he
enters his fifth pro season with only three games missed in
his three years as a starter, with at least 1000 yds
and 8 TDs in each of those three and with dozens of receptions
each year, very important in a league that awards 1 pt per
catch. Stability is critical in a first-round pick, and
while Deuce has proven only occasionally spectacular, he is a
very solid selection here for Jerome.
|
 1.07 RB
Tiki Barber
By Del Pilar | Bonini
Who
We Took and Why:
Our first choice came at
No. 7 and in picking seventh we missed out on the big four
running backs (LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin
James and Priest Holmes). This left us with a big group of
similarly skilled RBs from which to make our choice. Given that
the scoring system in the league rewards receiving backs we felt
that Giants RB Tiki Barber was the best choice. He was the
highest-scoring RB in this format last season and has been close
or above 2,000 total yards and 10-15 TDs in two of the last
three years.
Other
Candidates Considered:
Before selecting Barber we bandied about a couple of other
running backs, most notably Green Bay Packers RB Ahman Green and
Houston Texans RB Domanick Davis. Green, a consensus top five
pick a season ago, is coming off a down year, lost two talented
offensive linemen and is having off-the-field issues so he was
eliminated. That narrowed it to Davis and Barber, but we felt
Davis’ nagging injury concerns and a less impressive track
record than Barber gave the nod to Tiki.
Current
Strategy:
Overall,
we’re happy with the selection as Barber has been very good or
outstanding two of the last three years and he should once again
be the focal point of the Giants’ offense. There are always
concerns with his fumbling, though he addressed those nicely in
2004. With our first rock-solid RB in the fold we’ll be
looking to double up with another running back in the second
round. Our current
strategy is still in place. |
| Commissioner
Comments:
Has Riki-Tiki-Tavi really played
eight seasons in the NFL? Wow, I'm getting old.
And there are those who would say he is too. Remember
that talk last year before he ripped off a league-leading 2096
yds from scrimmage in the '04 campaign? Add in 15
scores last season and the fact that he hasn't missed a
game in several years and catches over 50 balls every year,
with a 1-pt bonus per, and you have one of this league's gems.
While nothing is sure in life but
death, taxes, and celebrity gossip, numbers like that cannot
be ignored. Recall also that Tiki's fellow ageless
wonder, Curtis Martin, led the league in ground yardage, and
you see why a fantasy leaguer can't let speculation about age
interfere with his or her judgment until the numbers have
noticeably declined. Recall also that Giants QB Eli
Manning should show some serious improvement this year to take
heat off the run game, and there's no doubt this is a good
pick by the KFFL guys.
|
 1.08 RB
Dominic Davis
By Tim Hollar
This was actually a very difficult choice. Early on in my
FanEx draft preparations I had realistically determined my
choice might come down to Davis or RB Willis McGahee. When
both were available it made things interesting, especially when
another owner made a very fair offer to move up.
In the end, Davis' abilities as a pass receiver carried the day,
as well as the stability and upward movement of the Texans
offense as a whole. (McGahee will be breaking in a new
quarterback with Buffalo.) As the
3rd most productive running back in 2004 FanEx scoring, Double-D
represents a nice foundation from which to build.
|
1.09 QB
Payton Manning
by Shannon O'Leary
With the number nine selection in the first round of this year's
draft, I have selected Peyton Manning. While I am not a big fan
of Manning, his numbers are solid if not spectacular year after
year. In Manning I get the number two scorer from last year in
this system. If this were a traditional draft I would have went
with a running back, but this draft is won by scoring the most
points overall.
Another
thing to consider with Manning is his supporting cast, and his
durability. Each year in the FAD, we see teams take a big hit by
losing a player to injury. I figured this was a safe pick, as
Manning should be on the field most of the year.
|
 1.10 RB
Willis McGahee
By Dolfi | Walls
Dolfi’s
Take – We were surprised to find McGahee falling in our
laps at the 1.10 spot. We
really thought he’d be gone by 1.07 or 1.08 at the latest.
Sure McGahee was only 14th in overall rushing
last year, but he made up for that by finding the endzone 13
times to tie for 4th among NFL rushers. Oh yeah – did we mention he put up those numbers in his
rookie season? A
season in which he didn’t become the full time starter until
week 6?
McGahee is a
guy you want on your fantasy team, trust us.
And if your league is a keeper league, his youth makes
him even more of a commodity. And even if McGahee doesn’t improve, I guess you’d just
have to be satisfied with an 1100+ yard rusher and double-digit
TD scorer – I know we are.
Walls’
Take - Wow – I didn’t think this choice would be this
easy. I thought for sure McGahee and Dom Davis would have been
gone. Leaving us with a choice between the Jones Boys, Ahman
Green and Portis. Sure, not a bad choice at all, I would have
been happy with those guys in this position. But McGahee fell
like Enron’s stock - right to us. Hey, we’re not gonna look
a gift horse in the mouth. Green and the Jones Boys have more
questions than McGahee. I believe that McGahee is simply a
better choice than the backs mentioned above (well, not Dom
Davis – but he wasn’t there anyway), so there wasn’t a lot
of hand wringing. This pick was easy.
There are only
two concerns for me with McGahee, one is a JP Losman – an
unproven QB. The second is how well McGahee handles the ball
late in the year. JP Losman is unproven, but Drew Bledsoe showed
he was nothing special after leaving the Pats. McGahee had 4
fumbles last year, not bad, but they were all in December, one
per game in December. Only one of the games was in Buffalo, so
it may or may not be a cold weather versus U of Miami (FL)
running back issue. With Travis Henry moving on and Rashard Lee
coming in, there isn’t much of a chance that carries go to
someone else, despite a potential fumbling concern.
No, McGahee
gets the ball all over the field, and scores a bunch of TDs. If
McGahee falls out of the top five in your draft. Take him.
|
| Commissioner
Comments:
I was watching that national title
game McGahee played in at Miami U, when he suffered the
obvious knee injuries that derailed what was then a surefire
multimillion-dollar signing bonus for the guy who was
certainly a top 3 NFL draft pick. It hurt to see that,
on so many levels.
But time heals all wounds, the
poet says, and thus we enter the third season of a burgeoning
studly career. Heck, the first of those three years
doesn't even count, as it was spent in endless rehab. So
essentially McGahee is a second-year pro beginning his second
season back from knee injuries. The rule known to most
fantasy leaguers is this: The second year back after
rehabbing a knee injury is when an RB hits his stride again.
That points to a monster season.
The downside with a McGahee pick
is the instability at the QB position, with second-year man
J.P. Losman slated to take all the snaps. If not, the
uneven Kelly Holcomb will take the reins. Most defenses
are liable to group-hug McGahee and dare the QB to carry the
offense, but another consideration is that the Bills D comes
into 2005 as one of the league's elite units, so downfield
passing may not be as important as it would be if that were
not the case.
Putting all these thoughts into a
blender we come out with this pureed perspective:
McGahee is the focus of his team's offense, and is an
explosive enough player that even nine men in a box won't be
able to contain him all the time. As the tenth overall
pick, those are facts that make this selection sensible and
even desirable.
|
 1.11
RB Ahman Green
By Duane Cahill
If I were drafting in a room with these guys, I likely would
have been the first one to utter an obscenity or two when
the guy ahead of me was drafted. When I drew the #11
selection in this draft, I had no delusions that I had a
shot at Willis McGahee. I have him ranked as my #3
running back with a bullet, meaning he may be #2 by late
August. But as the draft unfolded, it looked like
McGahee might fall into my lap somehow. Hey,
Dolfi/Walls - @*##$%!!
Getting my #9 player at position
#11 isn't much of a coup, but that said, he was the best guy
on the board, so I grabbed him. Other considerations
(in order) were Kevin Jones, Julius Jones and Randy Moss.
After an outstanding 2003
season, Green returned to earth last year. However,
he's in the final year of his contract, and will likely be
good for his usual 4.5 yards per carry. Additionally,
Green will add 50 points or so in receptions alone. If
Green matches last season, he'll still be a top ten back and
I've received the value I've drafted. If he has the
normal upswing that a back playing for contract has, he may
be as high as #5, giving me much better value.
Outside of the Packers' two new
free agent guards falling flat on their faces, Green is a
safe pick who could pan out to be much better than his
position
|
Guest
Comments: In 5 years
as a starter in the NFL, Ahman Green had his worst season in
2004. He rushed for 720 yards less than he did in 2003...This
pick definitely sets off a red flag for me.
|
 1.12 RB
Clinton Portis
By TC Cannon
Should and could. This -should- be a bounce back
year for Portis (2004: 1315-5 rush, 40-235-2 rec) as a second
year Redskin. The promising offensive line -should- be improved
and the run-first mentality of HC Gibbs -should-
contribute to a positive rebound for Portis, who -could- flirt with
scoring 15 TDs as he did in Denver.
Every time Portis gets the ball, he -could- go
the distance. He is quick to the hole, strong enough to shake
tackles, and fast enough to outrun defensive backs.
Shoulds and coulds aside, he is a small gamble and preferred as my FAD RB1.
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