5.01 RB Thomas Jones
By Shannon O'Leary of FanEx
This is somewhat of a gamble
pick. RB Jones is the starter now with Pittman out of the
way in Tampa. He has bulked up some and should be ready to
rumble this year. The fact that Arizona is interested in
Jamal Anderson and other free agent runners doesn't make me
feel real good, but of the remaining backs left Jones has
the most opportunity to succeed.
I looked at some receivers but decided to grab another back
now as they will be gone by the time the picks get back to
me. There should be some receivers left of the same caliber
or potential in the 6th round.
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5.01 RB Thomas Jones
By Guest Michael Traynor
Thomas Jones. With the FanEx rules that there are
no post-draft transactions, picking up Jones here appears to
be one of those players that will either make or break
Shannon's team this season.
With Faulk and Antowain Smith already on the roster, Shannon
has his starters; but Marshall's proven that he misses at
least a few games each year, so a solid #3 is a necessity.
Being able to select a STARTING RB in the 5th round of this
type of draft could be a season-saver.
Pros:
- Jones has absolutely NO competition for the starting
slot in Arizona, with Michael Pittman now in Tampa.
- The offensive linemen aren't weighed in pounds, but
in tons. They are very a group that has been carefully
put together AND now have some time together as a unit,
which is a tremendous asset.
- Jones must now realize that if he wants a career in
the NFL, that this is his last (and best) chance, so he will
be ready.
- His team chose to not re-sign Pittman, which should
prove to be a big confidence boost to Jones.
Cons:
- He's not come close to proving that he was worth the
#5 pick in the draft when he came out.
Overall, rounding out your roster with a 3rd RB at this time
was a very good (and PROPER) move. As Shannon's next
pick isn't for a long time, there would likely be nothing
left except for the Jason Brookins' of the league to choose
from.
5.01 RB Thomas Jones
By Guest Louie Genard of Dr.
Football
I have mixed emotions about this pick.
I see some upside to this choice. RB Thomas Jones has no
competition for either the starting job or the goal line
carries- a major plus. All the veteran F/A talk doesn't
scare me away from him since it is his job to lose. His OL
is huge & if they can open up some room between the
tackles, he could put up some very nice numbers.
However, I also see some downside here. Arizona has moved to
possibly the toughest division in the NFC & they also
have a tough non-division schedule, especially against the
run. It is possible that the Cards will be playing catch up
a lot this season and we know what effect that can
have on RB stats.
How will he respond to handling the load of a 16 game
season? Who knows? Jones has been less than impressive in a
part-time role the past two seasons. I personally would have
selected a WR with this pick since the likes of Burress,
Chambers & McCaffrey were still on the board. I admit
that I am a little conservative until I have my starters in
place, but I like those three WRs more than a 3rd RB. My
philosophy is that a #2 WR will see more play time than a #3
RB.
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5.02 RB Jamal Lewis
By Duane Cahill of Pitt
Tribune-Review
In the analysis for the trade [*link
here*] in which I acquired this pick, I mentioned that I
would let you know if one of the four players I had in mind
had lasted until 4.11. Well, Lewis was one of the four
(Moulds, Hearst and Henry were the others).
When it came to the 4.11 selection, I noticed that Shannon
O'Leary already had two running backs, and mistakenly
figured that he wouldn't take a third. While he did,
it wasn't Lewis, so here we are -- another high risk, high
reward pick.
Word out of Baltimore has Lewis anywhere between 75 and 90%
healthy, with training camp still two months away. The
next four days may be telling, as the Ravens are holding
"voluntary" practice sessions, and we will have a
better handle on whether those reports are true.
Encouraging here is that there has been no word out of Charm
City that the Ravens are actively pursuing another running
back. Moe Williams has signed with the Vikings, and
Terry Allen won't be back. That leaves only Lewis and
Jason Brookins as viable options at tailback.
Also encouraging is that Sam Gash has entered negotiations
to re-sign with the team after not finding the kind of money
he desired in the free agent market. Gash is an
integral part of Lewis' success.
Finally, while an ACL is a serious injury, it is one from
which Lewis has rebounded once before. I'm crossing my
fingers and hoping that Lewis health allows him to produce
numbers close to the 1300 yards and 6 TDs he scored during
his rookie campaign.
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5.02 RB Jamal Lewis
By Guest Kirk Bouyelas of Dr.
Football
Duane... Better cross your
fingers, toes and anything else you can find. Also, grab a
rabbits foot, 4 leaf clover and pray regularly.
On the surface I liked the trade with TC. After seeing the
results, I'm not sure it was a good one.
You are correct when you said Jamal Lewis is the one and
only man in Baltimore. They also released Jason Brookins.
The problem is that Jamal and the Ravens (as a team), scare
the daylights out of me. There's an inexperienced QB, a RB
recovering from an ACL, average (at best) receivers, an
offensive line with holes, and a defense who will not break
the Top 15. There is way too much risk with this pick for my
liking.
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5.03 QB Rich Gannon
By William Del Pilar | Ryan Bonini of KFFL
Drafting for value is something we all have been doing since
the creation of rotisserie baseball and then fantasy
football and that is what we've done here with this pick. We
really wanted a third RB and feel like a team shut out after
taking WR David Boston in round two (we keep coming back to
that pick don't we?) and settling for RB Jerome Bettis in
round three. With RB William Green, our No. 3 RB choice, was
taken in the fourth round ahead of us, forced us to once
again re-adjust our strategy and we took TE Marcus Pollard.
We simply felt the RBs at that point and at this juncture
(round five) are very similar in terms of strong upside and
potential but on the flip side, they all have their
downside. Some reasons; sharing time, injury prone and
simply never getting the job done on a consistent basis. RBs
Michael Pittman, Thomas Jones, Tiki Barber, Charlie Garner
and Mike Alstott all have solid upside but have negatives as
well. We stress this because we wanted an RB and could have
taken one of these and originally planned on.
However, after breaking the numbers down, the QB position
and what was left in terms of top tier QBs or second tier
QBs simply showed a higher value than what was left in the
RBs. You're talking about a team that believes in having a
strong RB corp. to anchor the fantasy squad. However, you
have to be able to make adjustments on the fly and re-plan
your strategy as well. With that, we realized that having
the opportunity to take QB Rich Gannon in the fifth round is
as good of a value pick as we will arguably find in this
draft. Gannon was rated the No. 6 QB in the FanEx FAD in
2001; No. 4 in 2000 and No. 4 in 1999. We believe he has one
more year of great fantasy statistics left. The Oakland
Raiders are poised to make one more run to the Super Bowl
and have the pieces in place to make Gannon a great fantasy
QB (less the TE position). Even with a drop in production,
3,500 yards passing and a total of 26 TDs would not be
unrealistic based on his recent track record.
For those concerned about the team having a new head coach,
Bill Callahan, there should be minimal disruption of style
or play from the offense. Callahan was Gruden's offensive
coordinator for the last four years and is probably a key
reason why he won the head coaching job. A veteran team with
only one more year left for a serious run would dictate
bringing someone in who won't change the offensive schemes.
The team is also virtually intact, so changing the offense
would be more detrimental than helpful. One more note;
Gruden's entire staff at the time he left was still with the
team and you can expect minimal turnover, i.e. continuity
with the coaches is intact.
Other options? We liked QB Steve McNair and considered him
here as he has more upside than Gannon but his downside is
also apparent. If RB Eddie George comes back it could limit
the teams' passes; McNair also has a history of being nicked
up and missing games here and there; and finally, he hasn't
shown the consistency that Gannon has. He's a great upside
pick but since we can't make changes down the road once the
draft is over, we felt Gannon and his track record was a
much better pick (we don't think McNair will last much
longer).
In conclusion, some may say this is the correct slot for
Gannon but we believe to be able to grab a QB of this
caliber in round five is outstanding. We shall continue our
RB search in future rounds; but, for now, we're ecstatic
with Gannon.
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5.03 QB Rich Gannon
By Guest Tim Ludwig
I really like this pick. There are some fantasy owners
that would have preferred Steve McNair over Rich Gannon and
I am one of them. That being said, I still like this
selection.
Gannon is the model of consistency. Too many people worry
about age in fantasy leagues. Age is a factor in dynasty
leagues, but not in FanEx. Gannon may be 36 in age, but he
plays more like a 26 year old. In the last three years,
Gannon has averaged 3699 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 352
rushing yards and 2.3 rushing TDs a year.
How can you argue with numbers like that?
In fact, no quarterback has averaged more fantasy points per
season in the last three years. Not Kurt Warner, Not Peyton
Manning, not Brett Favre.
I do not see much of a decline from Gannon in 2002. As I
mentioned earlier, I like McNair to have a better season
this year, but Gannon is a safer choice. McNair could
finally have that breakthrough year, but he could tease us
once again. Gannon will produce. You can take that to the
bank. You can only say that about a handful of quarterbacks.
This is definitely a nice pick and in the 5th round.
5.03 QB Rich Gannon
By Guest Paul Baitinger of AskTheCommish.com
First off, I'd like to say shame on William Del Pillar for
even contemplating taking a RB here. Second, he must
have been holding his breath hoping that Cahill and O'Leary
wouldn't have the balls to take a 2nd QB. Sure, Del
Pillar doesn't have the greatest backfield with Bettis and
Green, but Gannon is an absolute no-brainer here.
Gannon (235) has averaged almost as many fantasy points over
the last three years as Kurt Warner (242). Keep in
mind, Kurt Warner went in the first round of this draft.
Gannon is going 4 rounds later. Now take into
consideration the next few QBs on the radar screen (Griese,
McNair, Green) and these guys all have considerable more
risk and less reward.
Gannon is a nice steal at this point in the draft.
Remember, Thomas Jones was drafted before him and Johnnie
Morton was drafted only two picks later.
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5.04 QB Brian Griese
By Emil Kadlec of FF
Pro Forecast
With all managers who don't have a quarterback picking between
this pick and my next pick at the bottom of the round, I
decided to take a serious look at this position. IMHO,
Griese is one of only a few QBs left on the board that has
the potential to be a top 5 QB. However, there is real risk
too. I'm rolling the dice here in round five!
According to reports out of Denver, Mike Shanahan fully
expects Griese to rebound in 2002 following a
less-than-impressive 2001 season. The coach went on to say
Griese, who signed a six-year, $39 million contract that
included a $12.6 million signing bonus last year, is facing
a critical -- possibly career-defining -- season.
"We'll find out this year if he likes to be the
quarterback and likes to be the underdog and likes a little
pressure on him," Shanahan said in March. It's worth
noting that Shanahan wouldn't lay all the blame for last
year's shortcomings on Griese alone. "In reality, you
don't throw 30 touchdown passes and five interceptions [as
Griese did during his first two-plus seasons]," the
coach explained, "and then lose a number of people and
all of a sudden go 50-50 with touchdown-and-interception
ratio, and blame it all on one guy. ..." It's a good
point.
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5.04 QB Brian Griese
By Guest Clayton Gray
There is no fault in selecting
Brian Griese in this spot. As evidenced by his 2000
season performance (19 TDs in only 10 games played), he
has plenty of upside. I'm also comfortable in
dismissing Griese's 2001 production as a group failure due
to the Broncos offense losing so many talented players to
injury. Factor in the return of Shannon Sharpe, and
things definitely are looking up for Brian Griese.
However, he's not the
player that I would prefer. As that player has yet
to be selected, I chose not to spout forth his name in
this forum. Granted, my writings won't change the
mind of any of these drafters, but naming undrafted
players during a draft is just a no-no in my book.
A few descriptors are in
order:
1. Player will lead an
offense that could easily be among the NFL leaders in
yardage and scoring.
2. Player has performed well
in the past.
3. Player was drafted by
myself years ago (and showed great preseason promise) only
to be struck down by a vicious hit of epic proportions
which left my promising band of hungry warriors lacking
their true leader and caused me to swear revenge upon both
the dastardly defender involved and the scheming foe of a
GM that selected Player's replacement ONE PICK IN
FRONT OF ME.....YEAH, ONE STINKIN' PICK.....in that week's
free agent draft.
But hey, I'm not bitter.
["And oh yeah, now that he's been taken, the player
was QB Trent Green. He's going to rock this
year."]
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5.05 WR Johnnie Morton
By Chris Dolfi of FanEx
Well, something finally went as I planned in this draft.
I has skipped over Johnnie Morton last round because,
although I think he's going to have a great year, I thought
him more likely to last to me in the 5th round than some of
the other WRs that were available at the time. As
other FanEx members have written, you don't want to draft a
player based on how you think he'll do, you draft a player
based on what others think he will do.
Morton is one of those WRs that doesn't have any of the
right things going for him physically - he's not tall at
only 6 foot even, he's not particularly big at 190 lbs., and
he's not a speed burner that is going to kill you with
quickness on the outside. What Morton does is run very
good routes, has great vision after the catch, and is just
damned dependable game in, game out.
Last year Morton grabbed 1154 yards on a struggling Detroit
offense, but only 4 TDs. He now steps in to a Kansas
City offense that also had it's scoring troubles last year,
but troubles that I attribute more to growing pains than a
bad QB or an inept offense. Kansas City has certainly
proven they are an offensive team, ending up 3rd in total
offense amongst the AFC teams last year, and the addition of
Morton should only help those numbers.
I'm glad I was able to wait until the mid-fifth to grab
Morton, and think he'll pay dividends much greater than that
in 2002. The only reservation I had at all making this
pick was putting off QB for yet another round, but there is
still value to be had in the 6th round.
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5.05 WR Johnnie Morton
By Guest Lenny Pappano
Dolfi went for a safe pick at this spot. A guy like
Plaxico Burress has far more upside, but Johnnie Morton has
been hanging 1,000-yard seasons for the better part of the
past 5 seasons -- usually as a #2 WR. He now takes his
talents to KC where he will likely become the best WR option
for Trent Green.
While Morton hasn't posted more than 5 TDs in any
single season since 1998, and we doubt he'll break that
threshold this season. He's 30, and with a new team.
Tony Gonzalez will get all the looks in the red zone, so
figure Morton for a pedestrian 1,000 yards and 4 or 5 TDs.
Not bad for a 5th rounder and a #3 fantasy WR -- but a
"riskier" player like Burress, or even Chris
Chambers, might have paid bigger dividends for team
Dolfi.
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5.06 RB Warrick Dunn
By Jerome Hickerson of
TalkFootball.com
RB
Warrick Dunn has the opportunity in
Atlanta
to be a
potential top 20 fantasy RB. I’m looking for about 1400
combined yards and 7 scores. If he produces those kinds of
numbers, he is a worthy #3 fantasy RB.
The
concern in drafting Dunn is durability and whether the
rookie in
Atlanta
will
steal the “thunder”. As a 5th round
selection, I was really making my choice between Dunn, Tiki
Barber and a WR. I ruled out taking a receiver because there
are so many to choose from. Barber was a strong
consideration, but I opted for Dunn because of the change in
surroundings. There is always a risk when a player changes
teams, but there is also a possibility that the change will
produce an upside. I’m obviously taking a risk while
hoping for that upside.
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5.06 WR Warrick Dunn
By Guest David Grey
of David Grey's Fantasy Football Report
You can never have too many RBs and with the top WRs already
off the board and the WR position being relatively deep. A
RB is a good direction to go here, especially with Edge
coming off a knee injury.
Warrick Dunn seems like a hit or miss pick. Will he
get any goal line chances or will Vick and/or Duckett take
those away from him? His big play ability and
receiving ability will give him potential to put up plenty
of yards and he can break one any time he touches the ball.
It sounds like the Falcons want him to touch the ball early
and often, and if he does, this pick could be a steal.
But if Duckett comes on strong, Dunn could end up being a
glorified 3rd down RB, which could really hurt his fantasy
value. The reward probably out weights the risk since
Dunn has proven himself in the past and the change of
scenery could be just what the fantasy doctor ordered.
5.06 WR Warrick Dunn
By Guest Angel Cabrales
I hate to be negative, but...Warrick Dunn? Are you
sure? I'm not high on Dunn for several reasons. First
and foremost, he's not an every-down back. At
5'-9" and 190 lbs., he's just not built to take the
punishment. Head Coach Tony Dungy knew it in Tampa Bay
where Dunn split time with Mike Alstott, and Head Coach Dan
Reeves knows it in Atlanta as proven by the drafting of TJ
Duckett. Also, Dunn is not a threat to be a top 5
back; he can be good, but never great. From 1998 to
2001, Dunn rushed for 1000 yds, 600 yds, 1100 yds and 400
yds. That teeter-totter of totals is at times
respectable, at times regretable, but never remarkable.
I know what you're thinking--"Those are fine totals for
a #3 RB taken in the 5th round." This could be
the case if your league gives a lot of points to
pass-catching RBs. Also, if you've waited too long to
take your #2 RB and need someone who is at least average, go
ahead and pick him up. However if, like Jerome
Hickerson, you're taking your 3rd RB and can take a risk on
someone who might be great, Dunn is not your man. The
bottom line is you are not going to win the championship if
you're starting Warrick Dunn.
|
5.07 WR Kevin Johnson
By John Hansen of The
Guru Report
I went a little bit out on a limb grabbing
Darrell Jackson in the 4th round, but Jackson's a guy I
love. This round, I played it a little safer and
grabbed Johnson, who's his team's undisputed #1 WR and who
is entering his 4th season playing with the improving Tim
Couch.
There's no question WR Kevin Johnson is Couch's go-to guy
and at times last year, the connection bordered on prolific.
For example, Johnson scored in 7 of 10 games at one stretch
last year. Now, with a viable running game and two
years in the team's offense, there's no excuse for Couch not
to emerge from the middle of the QB pack and become a top-15
QB, as he's easily capable of being. When he does,
Johnson's numbers should see an increase across the board.
Considering Johnson was thrown to an awful lot last year and
has proven to be an effective TD producer, I expect around
95 catches, 1200 yards, and 10 TDs from Johnson. When
you look at last year's numbers (84, 1097, 9) that's only a
small increase. Johnson isn't a fading star who had a good
year last year; he's an emerging threat who like his QB has
yet to realize his full potential
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5.07 WR Kevin Johnson
By Guest John Greco
John Hansen said he wanted to play it "safe",
which is exactly what he did with the selection of WR Kevin
Johnson at this juncture. The other logical WR
selection at this point (Burress) probably carries more
upside, but at the same time, much more risk. While
Burress has a decided edge in physical assets, Johnson has
an edge in experience, coming into the league a year before
Burress. In a dynasty league, if selecting a WR at
this pick, I would have rolled the dice and opted for
Burress. For this league, Mr. Johnson is the correct
choice.
However, I don't look for Johnson to improve his numbers
over those produced last year. My concerns aren't
related to his QB situation or his abilities, but rather
founded in the direction his team is moving. Butch
Davis desperately wants to develop a running game (or else
he just never gets past the RB list during the draft).
Rookie William Green is his best possibility yet.
Couple that with a gradually improving defense and Cleveland
could have the makings of a ballcontol,
grind-out-the-yardage kind of team that doesn't need to
score tons of points. Another concern I have regarding
Johnson is that he IS the primary receiving threat on the
team with Quincy Morgan and little else to draw the
defense's attention away from him. Failure of Morgan
to "emerge" could hurt Johnson by him continuing
to draw a lot of double teams. On the other hand, if
Morgan does become a receiving threat, it could lessen the
number of balls thrown in Johnson's direction.
These are probably minor points, and certainly not enough to
fault the selection, but with the team as it stood before
this pick, I probably would have selected neither Johnson
nor Burress, but instead gone for Tiki Barber and taken my
chances with receivers that slipped through to the next
round.
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5.08 RB Tiki Barber
By Chris Rito of FF
Mastermind
and Carlos Panizo of STATS,
Inc.
We are a little surprised that Tiki is still on the board
here. Now that doesn't mean that this slot isn't correct for
him - it just means that we thought someone would have
drafted him by now. After carefully considering options at
other positions, it was our opinion that the drop off after
Barber on the RB charts was steeper than the drop off at the
other positions. Thus Barber is ours now and the others will
wait.
Barber has averaged 1500 yards from scrimmage over the last
two years - his only two as a significant
starter/contributor in New York. He is a nice combination of
explosiveness (play to play) and consistency (week to week).
He is among the leaders in YPC and YAC every year, he is a
threat to take one the distance every time he touches the
ball, he is a lock for 70 receptions out of the backfield,
he had 12 games over 100 total yards in 2000, and once
healthy last year finished the season doing that feat in 7
of 8 games down the stretch. Oh, and just for good
measure he returns punts and the occasional kickoff as well.
So...why is he still here? Maybe there is still the concern
over Ron Dayne snatching carries, especially at the goal
line. Amazingly, Barber has proven himself to be a better
short yardage runner over the last few years than the
massive Dayne, and has vastly outperformed the big fella
despite having less carries (but way more
"touches") in each of Dayne's two seasons. Maybe
his fumbleitis has some owners worried (22 in five years), I
dunno.
The simple fact is that it is very hard to find someone in
round five and beyond that you can absolutely guarantee (if
healthy) that will rush for nearly 1000 yards, get you close
to 100 total yards per week and score a half dozen times or
more. We'll take that any day as a RB#3, because remember
that points is points, no matter where they come from.
Unless a WR on the board can match those gaudy total yards
and scores, then Tiki is the obvious choice here.
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5.08 RB Tiki Barber
By Guest Michael Bicknell of SkillPositions.com
I have absolutely no arguments
with Rito and Panizo on this one. Ron Dayne...let's face it,
he's a bust. The Giants have resided to the fact that Barber
is their guy, and I don't see anyone on the roster that may
change this thinking. The Giants didn't even grab a back
anywhere in their draft.
Barber is one of those guys no one ever seems to trust, that
quietly puts up numbers consistently. He plays hurt, and
never leaves on passing downs.
He should add a nice relief valve for Emmitt Smith and
William Green should there be a problem for either. This
isn't a dominant backfield, but it has a lot of potential
going into the season.
There really are no drawbacks, considering the slot Barber
was taken. Now, Rito and Panizo can look to receivers, and
should be in pretty good shape.
|
5.09 QB Steve McNair
By Greg Kellogg of Komments
For many, Steve McNair has epitomized the under performing
QB. Since becoming a full-time NFL
starter in 1997, he had never topped 15 passing TDs and had
only surpassed 3,000 passing yards once. This was
partially offset by his remarkable running statistics but
not fully.
That is until last season when Eddie George was severely
limited, forcing the Titans to depend on 'Air' McNair.
Last season McNair passed for 3350 yards and 21 TDs in just
15 games. He also managed to rush for another 414
yards and five additional scores. In FanEx scoring,
those five rushing TDs equate to an additional 2.5 passing
TDs in value.
All told, McNair finished with 215 fantasy points, ahead of
both Aaron Brooks and Donovan McNabb, two QBs taken in the
third round. Two be able to wait two additional rounds
and get a QB of this quality is an unexpected pleasure.
But what can we expect this season and why a QB when I so desperately
need a RB?
The simple answer is that all of the teams drafting between
this pick and my next already have at least two RBs and
though they also each have one QB, I did not want to risk
losing McNair to someone trading above me.
Steve McNair will have Eddie George back at full strength
which, unlike some may think, will actually make things
easier for him. In Derrick Mason and Kevin Dyson, he
possesses two very talented young WRs. Frank Wycheck
and Erron Kinney add bulky targets from the TE position and
Eddie George has improved so much that one can hardly
remember there was a season when he only caught seven
passes. In fact, George has averaged 46 receptions a
year over the past three.
So one would have to conclude that McNair has plenty of
targets to look for. And his schedule this year should
favor strong performances by him.
He has two matchups with Jacksonville, whom he owns.
Over the past three seasons he has averaged 19-28 for 249
yards and two TDs. He has also averaged six rushes for
39.5 yards and .5 TDs in those four games.
He has also had great success historically against the
Bengals (average of 232 total yards and three TDs per game
over the past three years) and finally overcame his malaise
against the Browns by gaining 343 total yards and scoring
five TDs against them last season. Games against
Dallas, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia all should require the
Titans to go to the air as well.
|
5.09 QB Steve McNair
By Guest Michael Traynor
Stop! Thief!
There is now (or should be) an APB out for Greg Kellogg as
he just stole Steve McNair from the rest of the league.
Drafting is all about value and getting Steve McNair in the
5th round has value written all over it.
It is the point in a draft where, if you weren't into
getting one of the top QBs in the first few rounds, you'd
better pick one up now or you'll be praying that the likes
of Kitna and Dilfer will be able to put up substantive
numbers for the season. I just don't see that
happening and it appears that Greg does not either.
Even taking his injury history into account (where he is
usually nicked up taking him out of a game or two a year),
his schedule this year is VERY favorable AND he has a hell
of a receiving corps to throw to, including Eddie George.
With his scrambling ability, you know that if he stays
healthy, he'll vulture at least a few goal line TDs from
Eddie. And, as shown at the end of last season, if
Eddie isn't the Eddie of old, McNair is fully capable of
picking up the slack - and then some!
5.09 QB Steve McNair
By Guest Mark Horan
With a gaping hole at RB, Kellogg opts here for a solid
starting QB over any of the few remaining RBs with
reasonable fantasy potential (Garner, Pittman,
Foster/LSmith). While I wouldn't consider this pick to be a
steal (I think it's just about right for McNair, actually),
on balance I like the choice. McNair is the last of the
level two QBs who comes without a lot of questions or risks,
an important consideration given the uncertainty of that #2
RB slot.
After years of disappointing production, McNair emerged last
season as a fantasy force. His improved numbers coincided
with the demise of the Titans' defense and the injury
plagued season of RB Eddie George. Should the Titans' D
resurrect itself and/or George return to form, I would
expect to see some fall-off in McNair's passing numbers. As
always with McNair, the wild card is his rushing
performance. If he replicates his 8 TD season of several
years ago, this will turn out to be a very nice pick. If he
replicates the zero rushing TDs of the following season,
this should still be an OK choice, but nothing special.
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5.10 WR Plaxico Burress
By TC Cannon of Fantasy
Asylum
To succeed in the NFL, all WR Plaxico Burress needed was an attitude adjustment and
more accurate QB Stewart. Burress gives FF rosters a game-
breaking threat that should post very positive numbers. He is
one of the NFL's larger receivers (6-5, 230) and the Steelers best
target.
In fact when I see Burress, it's a flashback in form to
Herman Moore's glory days. He is tall, strong, and fast enough to be exciting. I also see teammate Hines Ward
(94-1003-4) and seriously doubt he can repeat any thing
close to that production in 2002.
A large part of this selection is the belief that the Steelers
will start throwing more often in the red zone this year.
They need the respect of defenses for their running game
(ala Bettis) to make their play-action heavy passing game
work. When they do, Burress seems a safe bet for 1000-1200 yards
and up to nine scores. Especially in the new AFC North with
the defense-limited Bengals, Ravens, and Browns.
Also note that WR Burress was recently charged with public
intoxication (see
ESPN Story) , a misdemeanor, after a fight with police
in Virginia Beach, Va. in early May. A court hearing is
scheduled for June 5th. His side of the story is that
Burress will contest the charge. He could pay a $67 fine for
the misdemeanor and be done with it, but Burress wants to
prove his innocence. Regardless of the court result, he
now faces possible discipline and/or mandatory alcohol
and drug testing by commissioner Paul Tagliabue under the
NFL's Personal Conduct Policy.
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5.10 Plaxico Burress
By Guest Craig Brye
Being an admirer of John Hansen, I was looking forward
to the opportunity to comment on his selection, as I could
pick any choice to review in the lower half of round 5.
But after seeing his choice and reading his analysis, what
else can be said other than "Ditto." That
being the case, I decided to go with WR Plaxico Burress, a
player that some are lukewarm on and others are bullish.
I'm of the latter group and commend TC for making the
aggressive move of trading up to get him.
I'm very high on Plaxico's prospects this year and made
moves in several keeper leagues early last year when he was
struggling to bring him into the fold. A move that
paid off down the stretch last year and has me excited about
this year. The single most important reason that I
think Plaxico will continue his late-season success is the
retention of offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey by the
Steelers. This will be the first time that Kordell
doesn't have to learn a new offensive scheme in successive
seasons and will bring two things to his up and down career:
stability and consistency. That can only mean good
things to the rest of the offense. At the end of last
season, Plaxico saw a rebirth that showed why he was touted
as 'the next Randy Moss' coming out of college. Hines
Ward's work ethic and toughness was infectious with that
team and no one benefited more than Burress. And
although I respect Ward as a receiver, I think he saw his
career best last season and Burress will definitely
emerge as the #1 gamebreaker of that receiver corps.
Of course there are always a few concerns with players at
this stage of the draft. RB Jerome Bettis' groin
injury has some worried about the running game, but I
believe Amos Zeroue proved he can be a capable fill-in when
needed to ease up the constant pounding Bettis has taken in
the past and still keep defenses honest. The other
concern being Plaxico's recent arrest after a night of
whoopin' it up. My guess is he and his brother just
had a little too good of a time and got a bit out of hand.
He's still just a kid after all. Cowher and Co. will have
his head screwed on straight again by camp as the Steelers
make another run at the title.
Overall, a great pick at the end of round 5. With
receivers like Johnnie Morton, Derrick Mason, and Troy Brown
going ahead of him, I think TC got the best receiver
available since the mid-fourth round.
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5.11 RB Michael Pittman
By Tony Holm of The
Prognosticator
RB Michael Pittman has the tools and
environment to be a big time player with the Bucs. He
also has the size and attitude to excel in this offense as
he embodies everything Jon Gruden looks for in a player.
Pittman has yet to be a true feature back, and though Tampa
hasn't actually promised the role, it doesn't take a genius
to figure out that Aaron Stecker isn't going to beat out
Pittman and Alstott is better suited at FB. This is
Pittman's opportunity to be a big time NFL player and he's
got everything in place for that to happen.
I tend to be a little gun shy picking players in new systems
as the NFL is a complicated place, but the Pittman story is
a little different. Back when he caught 73 passes with
Arizona a couple years ago he was in a West Coast offense
with Marc Trestman. Trestman went to Oakland
with Gruden and they ran a similar offense. The
offense Gruden is bringing to Tampa is a variation on the
offense Pittman had great success in. Think how good
Charlie Garner could be in that offense, if he could run
between the pipes like Pittman. Couple all those swing
passes with inside power running and a guy that can get to
the corner and you've got the potential for a fantasy
explosion. Can I say that?
There are of course question marks as I'm in the end of the
5th round selecting the 59th player in this draft against
eleven sharks. Can Pittman be a feature back? I
don't see why not. Will Alstott vulture TD's away from
Pittman? Yes, some, but Pittman is no little guy and
he'll get the lion's share with Alstott opening a nice big
hole for him. You simply couldn't slam Warrick Dunn up
the middle but Pittman you can. If anything, it's
Alstott that will suffer dramatically as a fantasy player.
If Pittman is so good why did Arizona dump him?
Business decision, they have a lot invested in Thomas Jones
and Arizona tends to take the cheap way out being a small
market team. It didn't make sense to have two high
priced backs on the team. What about this business
last season with the domestic abuse stuff? Concerned
about that? I'm certainly not proud of his actions if
that's what you're asking. The Bucs clubhouse element
I think will be a positive in Pittman's life. Arizona
lost their clubhouse element the day they let Larry Centers
go.
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5.11 RB Michael Pittman
By Guest Fred Tierney
I like this pick. I believe in this league you
want to have 3 good running backs unless you can have two
great wide receivers. I believe Jon Gruden will
emphasize Pittman over Mike Alstott. Getting 6-8
rushing touchdowns 800 or more yards rushing, 2-3 receiving
TDs, and 300 plus yards receiving is really good for the
next to last pick in the 5th round.
Getting reliable wide receivers will wait until later
rounds. I believe Tony's team will either be fabulous
or a bottom feeder. I am betting on Tony's expertise
to make it a serious contender. Who would prefer to
have Mike Alstott over Michael Pittman?
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5.12 WR Chris Chambers
By Emil Kadlec of FF
Pro Forecast
Although his
2001 totals weren't as impressive as those posted by fellow
rookies LaDainian Tomlinson and Anthony Thomas, I still
believe Chambers was the most exciting newcomer of the
season. That contention is based primarily on his almost
immediate emergence as an impact player.
Think about it. Establishing a reputation as a dangerous
offensive weapon is no mean feat for any rookie skill
player, but it's a rare accomplishment indeed for rookie
wideouts, who generally have a hard time making the
transition from college ball to the pro game.
In my opinion, Chambers' 48-catch, 883-yard, seven-TD effort
-- which far exceeded the most optimistic expectations he
might have been saddled with after his collegiate career at
Wisconsin -- wasn't indicative of his true value to the
Dolphins.
I was far more impressed by his 18.4-yard per catch average,
which was a yard more than any other starting NFL receiver
averaged. And it's hard to ignore the six-game stretch
scoring streak in which Chambers put the ball in the end
zone seven times -- with five of them coming in the fourth
quarter. ...
By the way, the addition of Ricky Williams also means big
things for Chambers, who will be to the Dolphins what
Michael Irvin was to the Dallas Cowboys under Turner in the
'90s. With Williams drawing opposing safeties towards the
line of scrimmage, Chambers will not only have more
opportunities to make plays, he'll have better opportunities
to make big plays.
The bottom line is this: Chambers heads into the 2002 season
as a bona fide play-maker who has already demonstrated the
qualities necessary to develop into a true difference maker
sooner rather than later.
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5.12 WR Chris Chambers
By Guest Thomas Simons of The Guru Report
It is first and 10 from your own
40-yard line? Well, let's just hand the ball off to our
workhorse RB. Wait a minute! Do our eyes deceive? Chris
Chambers streaking the sideline, alone for a TD!!!
Too bad Plaxico Burress didn't drop two more slots. But one
cannot be disenchanted with the acquisition of Miami's young
and talented Chris Chambers. The addition of Ricky Williams
is key here. Last year, Miami relied heavily on Lamar Smith
to stretch defenses and allow Jay Fielder time to find
receivers in deep patterns. Yet, early injuries to Smith
made him run tentative and defenses shut him down often and
early.
An early trade of draft picks allowed Kadlec to nail down
his quarterback, backfield, floater, and one wide receiver
before making this pick at the end of the fifth round. If
Miami snags a veteran WR before the season starts, drafting
Chambers here is a steal! If not, teams will respect his
upside potential and throw double teams at him with every
chance they can!
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