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FanEx Analysis
Draft
Review
| Rules | Transactions
Round 4
   
   
  
Draft Rounds
1
| 2 | 3
| 4 | 5
| 6 | 7
| 8 | 9
| 10 | 11
| 12 | 13
| 14 | 15
| 16
4.01 WR Jimmy Smith
By David Dodds of Footballguys.com
[Note: Prior to this
selection, David obtained this draft slot via trade. The agreement
was Kadlec 4.01 + 6.01 + 8.01 for Dodds 4.09 + 5.04 + 7.04.]
For someone who spent time in
the hospital before last season, Jimmy sure did not look like
someone who was less than 100%. He finished the year with
112 catches, 1373 yards and 8 TDs.
Some facts of note:
- He has missed just two games in the last 6 years
- He has averaged over 106 receptions and 1400 yards receiving
over the last three years
- He tied Keyshawn Johnson for the league most targets (183)
- Keenan McCardell will be gone which could raise the number of
plays he is the primary receiver.
- Houston is in this conference now which should help pad his
stats
- Led all receivers in Top 24 performances each week with 12 such
games.
In summary, I was pleased to trade up and get Jimmy Smith this
late. And now that I am not drafting for awhile, I can get
back to hammering content for my website.
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4.01
WR Jimmy Smith
By Guest Adam Caplan of
Pro Football News and Injury
Report
You certainly can't blame the owner for trading up when a
player with so much value is left on the board.
When you consider Smith's numbers over the past three seasons, he
could be possibly be the best #2 fantasy receiver available:
1999 116-1636-6
2000 91-1213-8
2001 112-1373-8
What's also important to note is that he scored in seven games
last season, amongst the leaders at his position.
Though he won't have his trusty sidekick Keenan McCardell by his
side, Smith will still put up solid fantasy numbers this season as
he has at least eight games where he will face inferior secondaries.
It's also important to note that Smith is very underpaid
($2.75-million this season) for his position by NFL standards and
will be playing for a new deal though he's signed through 2006.
All in all, this is a solid selection and when was the last time
Jimmy Smith went as late as the fourth round?
4.01
WR Jimmy Smith
By Guest Philip Gentles
Trading up to get Jimmy Smith was brilliant. Nice move, David.
WR Smith is a yardage hog, averaging well over 1300 yards the last
5 years. His touchdown totals over that span haven't been as good
as many would have liked (6.8 per), but with McCardell gone in
June, look for Smith's 2002 total to be his best.
Dodds already has Torry Holt on roster and now has the luxury of
using Jimmy as his number 2 receiver. And guys, it just doesn't
get much better than Jimmy Smith at number 2!
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4.02
WR Tim Brown
By Tony Holm of The
Prognosticator
I know Tim Brown is never a sexy pick.
There's always that perceivable hum-bug sigh after he's selected.
Believe me, I made that same sigh.
When picking Donovan McNabb, I was looking at available Keyshawn
Johnson, Jimmy Smith and Tim Brown at the WR position. I decided
McNabb was just too good to pass up and said fine, I'll take
what's left from the 3 wideouts secretly hoping it would be either
Key or Smith. I felt fairly confident it would be one of
them as it would be unusual for Emil to take 2 WRs with question
marks at this point in the draft. As soon as Emil started
shopping his 4.01 selection to the league, I got nervous. I
thought about making a play for it but with me at 4.02 that just
seemed too darn silly. And there was still Tim Brown.
I feel this selection and probably the next two are going to be
the make or break selections for my draft. What I don't want
to do is start taking a chance on players before it's time to
start taking chances. There is enough risk taking picks to go
around for the remainder of the draft. So I looked at my
draft board and there was just one name left that in my opinion
was a solid player with little to no risk attached.
When was the last time Tim Brown missed a game? 1992. That
is nine straight seasons without a major injury. The last
time Tim Brown didn't receive for over 1,000 yards? 1992.
Actually, in that nine-year period he's averaged 1,221 yards and
8.33 TDs. In case you're thinking that nine years ago Tim
was in his prime and the numbers are skewed because of it, to
underscore what I can expect from Tim Brown, the last three years
Tim Brown has averaged 1,212 yards and 8.67 TDs. Which are a
scant 10 yards less and .33 TDs more than his nine-year average.
I think it's fairly safe to assume I just drafted a guy that is a
guaranteed 1,200 yards and 8-9 TDs to anchor my FAD receivers
leaving me better equipped to roll the dice a little later.
I've heard some raise the 'Jon Gruden is gone' argument, but nine
years of constant production, through coaching and QB changes,
tends to give me a warm fuzzy about this one. But yes I
agree, yaaaawwwwnnnnn.
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4.02
WR Tim Brown
By Guest Mike Murray
While Tim Brown is a fairly safe pick at 4.02, I'm not so sure it
was the right one. Tim has had solid numbers for years now, but I
have to wonder how much longer he can maintain these numbers.
A factor that bothers me is Jerry Rice. Jerry (1139 yds, 9 TDs)
had almost identical numbers to Brown (1165 yds, 9 TDs) last
season. When I look at my options at WR, a major factor is whether
or not they are the undisputed #1 target on their team.
Considering Brown only had 8 more receptions than Rice, it seems
as if he's sharing this load.
Brown certainly is not a bad pick, but I would have likely taken
Eric Moulds here instead of Brown.
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4.03 WR Eric Moulds
By TC Cannon of Fantasy
Asylum
RB Tiki Barber was once a strong consideration here,
until... I added in the fact that he doesn't often carry the ball near the goal
line. Actually, what happened is that I have decided not to handicap myself with the belief that I
need 3 RBs in the first five rounds. After all, that
selection history has not won me any FAD championships, yet. Bye
bye Barber.
Applaud the prior picks of WRs JSmith and TBrown and Horn all you
desire. Yet, do not be overly focused on them and forget this
Bill. With Eric Moulds, you get a positive player with GREAT skills and a
re-born opportunity. I have followed him with much enjoyment since
his 1998 break out season. Since then, he's been a '
spotlight' player that lacked a passer who could match Flutie's
daring production. With
Bledsoe pitching.. don't laugh, guys... Moulds could easily be an
east coast Terrell Owens. Truly, aside from Keyshawn Johnson, no
receiver is better equipped for a return to stardom that this
receiver.
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4.03
WR Eric Moulds
By Guest Hunter Catlett
It is clear from this draft that TC is an optimist. He
always sees the glass as half-full. If TD is able to stay
healthy, he could have a huge year. If Bennett continues to
progress and learns how to catch the ball, he could have a huge
year. And now we come to the selection of Eric Moulds.
IF he can snap out of his THREE-YEAR funk, he could have a huge
year.
And while I agree that Moulds has a ton of potential, I am not a
huge fan of the pick here. The addition of Mike Williams
immediately improves the Bills offensive line. Bledsoe is
also a big step up at QB, but that is only if he is able to stay
healthy. Given the fact that he is about as mobile Tony
Siragusa in quicksand, that is a huge question. Josh Reed
and Peerless Price will help take some of the coverage off of
Moulds, but will it be enough for him to re-emerge as a
fantasy-stud?
Moulds has been a tease for the past three years, so it is hard
for me to have faith in him. I mean, a one year funk is one thing.
Maybe I could let a two year drop slide. But three? I don't
know. I admit there is a huge upside with this pick.
When things are clicking, Moulds has the size, hands, and speed to
one of the top-10 WRs in the league. But, that is when
things are clicking. I fear that Moulds will only leave this owner
disappointed again.
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4.04 RB Garrison Hearst
By Greg Kellogg of Komments
By now most followers of the FAD were probably expecting me
to take a kicker or defense. Not so. When it came time
to select my top RB there were four names I considered.
Hearst, obviously, Duce Staley, Warrick Dunn and rookie William
Green.
I discounted Dunn relatively early because of the drafting of TJ
Duckett in the first round. I felt that both Staley and
Green had a better chance of being their team's go-to back than
Hearst did. So why Hearst?
I looked at how each team did running the ball last season.
Philly scored just six rushing TDs all season (and McNabb had two
of them). Staley did gain over 600 yards both rushing and
receiving so I expected greater performance on the ground with
less demands in the passing game. But Staley has never been
a big TD guy. One score means the same as 90 yards in this
league so I discounted Staley.
Green was hard for me to pass because I really feel he will not
last to my next pick. But it was hard to justify taking a
rookie back that I had never seen play at any level when he was
going to a team that rushed the ball just 417 times (as a team)
and averaged just 3.2 YPC while scoring eight TDs. I expect
all of those numbers to improve, but it would have to be
significant to match what San Francisco accomplished last season.
San Francisco rushed the ball 509 times averaging 4.4 YPC and
scoring 16 rushing TDs. Barlow played in 15 games but only
averaged 4.1 YPC and scored four TDs on 125 carries. Hearst
doubled Barlow's workload averaging 4.8 YPC on 252 carries and
also scored four TDs rushing. Both players caught a TD pass
as well.
I know that Head Coach Steve Mariucci was unsure how much of an
impact Hearst could have in his first year back following that
terrible ankle break in the 1998 playoffs. I also know he
rested Hearst more than he would have if he did not have questions
about his health. I mean the guy had not played for two
years.
There are many who feel Hearst will lose his job to Kevan Barlow.
I agree that this is a possibility though the 49ers have another
explosive young back tearing up the NFL Europe league that may one
day give Barlow a run for his money. But I don't think it
will be this year.
Hearst averaged over a half a yard more every time he touched the
ball. He has more speed and, though he may not be the same
as he once was, he has certainly proved he can tote the rock 250
times.
My guess is he gets over 300 carries this season. You can't
argue with success and Hearst has had it - over 1500 total yards
and 5 TDs last season after sitting out two years with an injury
that some said would prevent him from ever walking normally again.
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4.04
RB Garrison Hearst
By Guest Tony Shek
With Kellogg taking Moss, Owens, and
Gonzo drafted, a RB was virtual certainty to be taken
here. Hearst is the way to go. There were lots of
health related questions regarding him at the beginning of last
season. Those of which have all been answered.
Barlow was used to ease Hearst back, keeping him
fresh. In fact, now he has a couple years without the wear
and grind of the NFL. The Niners resigning of Hearst
and not having drafted or signed a RB this year is a very good
sign that they are prepared for a full season of Garrison at a
heavier workload.
Best case scenario is a slight
improvement on last years numbers, plus 1/3 of Barlow's, as
those are now plays where Hearst isn't substituted out. In
the FanEx scoring format, I would avoid the rookies and
players just coming off serious injuries as you couldn't just
simply sub them out should something go terribly wrong. People
will say that you can't predict injuries. But for certain
players, you are begging to get smacked. This to me
discounts picking a number of RBs, like Green, Duce, and
Dunn. The only other player I would consider for this slot
would be Travis Henry. New grinding coach, highly improved
offensive line and QB with a defense that should be better as
they were much too young last year, and gained experience.
Plus, he looked pretty good in mini camps here thus far that
I've been able to see.
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4.05 RB William
Green
By Carlos Panizo of STATS,
Inc.
and Chris Rito of FF
Mastermind
The analysis of our Emmitt Smith
selection at 3.08 mentioned that Green would have been a better
selection at that point - we could not agree more. The reason we
waited on Green was that we felt he could be
obtained at 4.05 but established RBs like Hearst or Emmitt would
not still be there. This reflects one of the cardinal rules of
drafting - never take a player where his stats indicate he should
go - take him no sooner than you NEED to take him. A player
putting up 3rd round numbers that you get in round 6 is more
valuable than the guy with 3rd round caliber numbers selected in
round 3; the former is a bargain and will make your team, where
the latter is merely doing the minimum
expectation.
As to Green - the komments made by Kellogg do indeed make us a
little leery of the Cleveland situation. But simply put - the
Browns have not had a runner of William Green's caliber on the
roster in recent years so
the stats will improve even if nothing else changes. However, the
young defense will continue to improve into the league's upper
echelon, which usually affords more chances to run the ball. The
division's rush
defenses have lessened with the partial dismantling of the Ravens;
indeed, the Browns' entire schedule is among the league's most
favorable for rushers, at least based on last year's stats.
I had a feeling that Greg would take Garrison Hearst in front of
us, since as a late-selected RB#1 he needed something a little
more sure and solid than an unproven rookie. But as a RB#2 with
some other horsepower
(two Colts - har de har har) in the lineup, Green is a risk
well-worth taking for us.
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4.05
RB William Green
By Guest Ryan Houston
I must admit, the QB/WR combo of Peyton and Harrison is going to
do wonders for this squad. Unfortunately it will also force you to
hope for miracles out of your backfield.
The guys received a lot of grief last round for selecting Emmitt
Smith so high in the draft. Many called for RB William Green
to be that selection. Considering he was the 21st running
back selected and fell to the 4th round, it was a great pick.
Obviously needing to address the RB position was a must for this
team and they did just that.
Green will get every opportunity to showcase his talent in an
improving Butch Davis offense. Not only that but the Browns have
the best RB friendly schedule in the entire NFL. I am sure
they would have loved to see Hearst slip to them but you can't
always have everything you want. The pigskin tends to bounce
a bit funny.
Overall, I really like the pick and feel the value was very solid.
Looking forward to see what this squad decides to do in the next
round.
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4.06 WR Darrell Jackson
By John Hansen of The
Guru Report
While he probably won't be as dominant
and explosive as David Boston, Jackson will be this year's version
of Boston. Like Boston in his second year, Jackson certainly had
his moments last year, also his second in the league. In fact,
Jackson's 2001 numbers were almost identical to Boston's numbers
the year before last. Jackson has been productive, but he's by no
means a finished product. But it's quite possible that now, in
this third season, like Boston last year, Jackson's ready to bust
out and become a certifiable top-10 fantasy WR. In his first two
years, Jackson, again like Boston, wasn't exactly helped by his
QB's play. But in 2002, Jackson's Seahawks should get stable play
from QB Trent Dilfer, who by the way threw 4 TD passes to Jackson
the final two games of the season last year.
There were about 6-7 guys very similar to Jackson available.
But he's one of my favorites (I owned him in FanEx last year) and
I think he has the best upside and quite possibly the lowest
downside of those 6-7 guys.
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4.06
WR Darrell Jackson
By Guest Mark Howe
WR Jackson was criticized during the pre-season and during
mid-season last year for dropping passes. I didn't see many
Seahawk games so I can't really comment on whether or not these
were legitimate drops or bad throws, although I do recall that
Jackson seemed to be getting the heat for the drops. I was never
really a big fan of the second-year player last year, not because
of the drops, but because of the questionable QB situation in
Seattle and the hype surrounding K. Robinson.
That was last year. John Hansen's 4.06 analysis is right on the
mark. One (of the many) keys to drafting is to look at how a
player performed during the second half of the previous season.
During the last nine games of 2001, Jackson averaged no fewer than
4 receptions and scored six of his eight touchdowns, including two
in each of the final two games. He also had three 100-yard games
during this stretch.
Someone wrote several years ago that they like to look at
promising receivers in their third season, especially when they
have shown progress during their first two years in the league.
Like anything else in this wonderful hobby we have, there is no
sure-fire way to predict performance, but I've found the
third-year rule to pay off more than not.
Jackson in the mid-fourth round is a solid pick with a great deal
of upside potential.
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4.07 RB Duce Staley
By Jerome Hickerson of TalkFootball.com
There
aren’t any sure bets at this point in the draft, so I’m
looking for the potential upside. Staley is now two years removed
from his injury, and history shows that most RBs
rebound best in the second year following a major injury.
Factoring in the Correll Buckhalter
injury, Staley seemed like the right pick at this point to me.
True, the Eagles may well acquire another RB after June 1st.
But I still believe that Staley will be the primary ball carrier
for the Eagles this season. Adding in his receiving abilities, he
seems likely to have a pretty good season and should make a decent
#2 RB for a fantasy team.
This
leaves my team as Daunte Culpepper, Edgerrin
James, Duce Staley and Isaac Bruce at the end of four rounds.
I’ve taken some risks, more than I’d like to have taken. But a
draft can’t be judged at the end of four rounds – the most
interesting rounds are yet to come!
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4.07
RB Duce Staley
By Guest Sean Nemeth
I think it was necessary to draft a solid RB here because of the
James pick at 1.06. Don't get me wrong, I liked that pick.
Playing it safe ensures mediocre status. If you're not the
lead dog, the view never changes.
Staley's stock obviously rose with Buckhalter's injury. Duce
is also another year removed from his injury. Unless the
Eagles sign a top Free Agent RB, look for Staley to rebound and
demonstrate that he can carry the load again.
I've drafted him in several Antsports.com
Mock Drafts, although he is much more valuable in leagues that
award 1 point per reception.
4.07
RB Duce Staley
By Guest Rod Brehm of Trade
Rumors
With RB Correll Buckhalter out for the season with a knee injury,
Staley is once again entrenched as Philadelphia's starting
tailback......for now. Duce is a decent runner, with
excellent hands out of the backfield, but foot injuries have
limited his fantasy value the past few seasons.
The Eagles seemed to be content with Duce as their starter when
they dropped out of the Warrick Dunn sweepstakes, but recent
rumors out of Philly indicate they are interested to see which
backs become available after June 1st, namely Jamal Anderson.
Dorsey Levens and Ki-Jana Carter have also been mentioned as
possible competition for Duce. Levens could be a good fit
with his past experience in a similar system, but he is also a
health risk.
Staley has some good upside if he is the starter when the regular
season rolls around. Remember, he is only 2 years removed
from a season where he rushed for 1273 yards. His quickness
and pass catching ability are a great fit for Andy Reid's West
Coast system, and the Eagles should put up good, if not great,
offensive numbers. But, his past injuries and possible
competition for carries from a veteran back make his selection a
bit risky. At this point in the draft, he may be worth the
gamble, but keep a close eye on the Eagles post-June 1st movement.
4.07
RB Duce Staley
By Guest Tim Ludwig
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4.08 WR Troy Brown
By Chris Dolfi of FanEx
The 4th round was a brutal one for me.
I watched as player after player that I coveted got taken
throughout the round. Eric Moulds was high on my list, but
TC takes him and pays me back for grabbing his desired player
earlier this draft (Taylor). I was crazy about Staley in
this spot, but he gets snatched from my fingers the pick before
this one. Tim Brown? Gone. Garrison Hearst? Bye bye.
That left me with the rather unpalatable choice of picking another
RB from the fast dwindling pool of available players, or a WR or
QB to fill a "need" spot. There are several fine
QBs left, but there will still be one of several that I rank
together available at my next pick. Actually WR was pretty
much the same deal, but I settled on Brown for a few key reasons.
Brown sees the ball a lot in the New England offense. With
101 catches last year that should be apparent. The 1199
yards of receiving last year weren't too shabby, either. But
Brown's biggest nod comes in the form of consistency. Brown
is one of those guys who really didn't have a super game last
year, but had plenty of good games. He scored only 5
receiving TDs, but all of them on different weeks, spreading out
his scoring nicely. The same with his yardage. Rarely
broke the 125 yard mark, but almost always above the 75 yard mark.
This is a guy that will always be in the mix for me. And as
an added note to his consistency - look no further than the
Patriots team. Same QB, the same can't be said for others I
considered like Johnnie Morton. Same head coach, the same can't be
said for others I considered like Jerry Rice. And the same
offensive system, the same can't be said for others like Warrick
Dunn.
All those factors added up to me taking Brown as the un-sexy,
un-explosive, but safe, dependable pick that he is.
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4.08
WR Troy Brown
By Guest Jason Marshall
I agree with Chris on this round was brutal for him. It
appears that Dolfi is stuck in getting leftovers, and letting the
draft steer him so far this year. Having said that, WR Troy Brown
did post career numbers last year 1199 YDS, 5 TDS and even 91 YDS
rushing. Not bad for playing on a boring, predictable
offense.
As he mentions, un-sexy, safe, dependable this pick might be,
however at 4.08 you need an impact player. I will be curious
on what "falls" to him in the 5th round. Even
avoiding the QB this round, I feel that TE Marcus Pollard, WRs
Johnny Morton, Kevin Johnson or Marty Booker would have provided
more points for his team this year. I expect Pollard to
continue to establish himself as the #2 TE in the league (#1 if
you don't compare him to the freak - Gonzalez) and all 3 of the
WRs should get more yards/TDs this year.
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4.09 RB Travis Henry
By Emil Kadlec of FF
Pro Forecast
What's not to like about the 5-9,
220-pound Henry -- the only true halfback in a stable comprised
mainly of glorified fullbacks?
For starters, I like his running style. Henry hits the hole
quickly and runs close to the ground. That low center of gravity,
his powerful lower body and remarkable sense of balance often
allow him to turn a two-yard run into a five-yard gain and
five-yarders into eight.
In fact, it's hard not to like a guy who ran with determination
and consistency that ultimately allowed Henry to leave Tennessee
as the school's all-time leading rusher.
I'll also remind you of the rumors that ran rampant at Tennessee
early last year indicating that Jamal Lewis decided to declare for
the 2000 draft as a junior because he feared Henry's presence
might keep him off the field and hurt his chances of being a
first-round pick.
Considering the rumors indicating that team officials would let
Shawn Bryson -- the Bill most likely to cut into his playing time
-- go if the right trade came along further solidifies my belief
that Henry, who will benefit greatly from an improved offensive
line and the more versified attack Buffalo will rely on under
Kevin Gilbride. ...
One last note here. ... Henry, who underwent arthroscopic knee
surgery, is reportedly recovering nicely and there's no reason to
believe he won't be ready to go full speed when camp opens this
summer. It's worth noting that the scope was performed to relieve
pressure in Henry's right knee caused by tendonitis. He sprained
the same knee and missed the final three games of the season, but
this procedure wasn't related to that injury.
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4.09
RB Travis Henry
By Guest Eric Hanson
Emil Kadlec traded down from 4.01 and grabs his 3rd (and the
league's 23rd) RB here. I have some minor reservations about
this pick even though I'm rather optimistic regarding Travis
Henry's prospects this season. I'm going to comment a bit more on
the draft strategy here than the player's prospects.
The scoring system appears to favor depth at the more volatile
positions - QB and WR. At RB you want to protect against
injury, but on any given Sunday your #4 or #5 WR can post points
for you as can your #3 QB. Since, to my knowledge, neither
Chicago nor Cincinnati have their #2 RB carved in stone yet a
third RB here is reasonable, but probably not ideal.
[Having said that, I can't see a WR I'd take with this pick.
Which leaves a QB . . . or an RB. The are three of each I'd
consider here. The RBs on my short list were Henry, Jamal
Lewis and Thomas Jones. The QBs I had ranked as viable picks
were Griese, Gannon and McNair. Since Emil has another pick
waiting at 5.04 he can reasonably expect at least one of these
players to fall that far. I'd venture that McNair and Thomas
Jones are both decent bets to fall that far and if he likes one of
those two players it may influence him at this pick. McNair
is the only player I'd gamble on to last until 5.12 - which
essentially means I'd be grabbing a QB at either 4.09 or 5.04.
Since McNair MIGHT last until 5.12 and Jones SHOULD last until
5.04 the path of maximum potential involves taking either Griese
or Gannon at 4.09, an RB 5.04 and either McNair at 5.12 or
grabbing the first of what will likely be at least 4 WRs. My
personal preference would be for Griese. He seems to have
more potential to put up big games in the Denver offense.]
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4.10 TE
Marcus Pollard
By William Del Pilar | Ryan Bonini of KFFL
Sometimes you make a pick you don't want to but feel it necessary
to make due to the drop in value in players of that position
thereafter. Even then, that can be questionable because some may
view a player's statistics the previous year as being one that was
a career year. We can accept that argument but don't see it in
Pollard's case. You never make a pick, especially at the TE
position in the fourth round, without some type of risk
involved.
However, we've always believed that Marcus Pollard was the better
fantasy TE than Ken Dilger based on red-zone production. However,
because of Dilger, the two TEs combined to equal one TE, thus
ensuring mediocrity in terms of fantasy production because both
players cancelled each other out. That did not happen in 2001 and
Pollard blossomed in his seventh season. It's not out of the
ordinary for TEs to blossom into great fantasy picks later in
their careers than WRs. Some examples (generally speaking):
-- Wesley Walls was in the league five years before blossoming.
-- Byron Chamberlain was in the league six years before
blossoming.
-- Shannon Sharpe blossomed in year three but he is special, had
QB John Elway and a lack of quality wideouts at the time.
-- Brent Jones (for those that remember) had moderate success
until he exploded in his seventh year.
With that in mind AND with the departure of TE Ken Dilger, we
don't think Pollard's numbers are a fluke. He's the real deal
based on the sharing of time in the past and finally becoming a
viable consistent option for fantasy production despite Dilger.
Some will say that the addition of WRs as well as the maturity of
those already on roster will hurt Pollard's numbers. That could be
true but he will still see his share of passes because he's simply
too good a TE to be consistently covered by a LB and that is why
he will see opportunities, i.e. mismatches.
We do think the possibility of 700-800 yards receiving along with
6-8 TDs is very possible. Like Minnesota Vikings TE Byron
Chamberlain, what makes Pollard great is his ability to get
downfield. While he has a 13.35 YPC career average, the last two
season's he's had a 14.6 and 15.7 YPC average. That's a testament
to his abilities as well as the arm of QB Peyton Manning. Much the
same way, Elway helped Sharpe, Manning helps Pollard. We think
that average will continue to remain high this coming year as
well, thus the optimism for high yardage based on lower than
normal receptions.
All that being said, we won't argue and feel we may have taken the
TE position too early, but we don't think Pollard would have been
around in round six when we targeted him (after our original sixth
round target Darrell Jackson went off the board) and felt he was
worth moving up our boards, especially since our original fourth
round pick was taken earlier in the round. With that we didn't
want to risk losing him and though he may have been there in round
five, our board showed we had a number of players relatively close
to each other in value (higher than Pollard). However, as stated,
the drop-off in production from the TE position after the first
few was too great to risk having someone take him prior to our
fifth pick (some will argue Chamberlain is just as good and we
can't dispute that, we like Pollard better). Overall, a tough
decision to make and once again, our pick of WR David Boston in
the second round has completely changed our drafting so far
including this round.
Our original pick slated for this slot was to have been rookie RB
William Green to anchor our number three RB spot and in case
Bettis gets hurt (don't blow out of proportion his comments about
Amos Zereoue taking too much of his touches away) but alas he went
a few picks earlier. We like him better than Bettis in terms of
upside but appear to have underestimated his value and lost out on
him. We did have an opportunity to trade up and in hindsight
should have taken it. We did try to trade down but the only offer
was not beneficial to our side as we would have given up the
fourth round pick and we would not have picked again until the
sixth round (multiple picks) which did not make much sense.
All in all, our drafting can be questioned so far and we won't
argue it (we heard enough criticism when we took RB LaDainian
Tomlinson in the early rounds in 2001). We do expect to create a
balance during the crucial middle-rounds. It was the middle rounds
that we feel has helped us to be successful in the past and hope
to continue that this year.
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4.10
TE Marcus Pollard
By Guest Tim Ludwig
I have never been big on grabbing a tight end early. There are too
many that produce nicely later on in the draft. In fact in the
last three years, only three TEs have been in the top ten every
year. This goes to show that taking a tight end early does not
guarantee you anything.
That being said I do like Pollard for 2002. It would not surprise
me to see him out produce Tony Gonzalez for the upcoming season.
Peyton Manning seemed to gain more and more confidence in him as
the year went on. In fact, Indianapolis plans on using him even
more than last year. This is a scary thought considering Pollard
had 739 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns.
As I mentioned before though I would have probably went a
different way. Gannon, McNair or Mason all would have players that
would have been nice values at this spot.
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4.11
WR Terry Glenn
By Duane Cahill of Pitt
Tribune-Review
Let's face it. If you had an opportunity to select a player
of Glenn's talent without having to take into account Glenn's
history, you wouldn't wait until the end of the fourth round to do
so.
While I'm going against my previous advice of not gambling on your
first four picks, the fact that I've traded down and picked up an
additional fifth round pick makes this risk a bit more palatable.
The Reader's Digest version of this analysis is quite simply that
I, like Packers management, am counting on the fact that Glenn's
history of problems with the Patriots organization were indicative
of his inability to mesh with a particular team more so than
rumors of drug abuse or personal problems.
Brett Favre has taken the time to reach out and make Glenn feel
welcome in Green Bay. In return, Glenn did and said all the
right things in camp, including working with the team's younger
receivers. So far, so good.
According to team sources, Glenn hasn't lost any speed, caught
almost everything thrown to him at camp, and still has the same
soft hands that helped him account for 90 catches what seems like
ten years ago.
In conclusion, I think Glenn is a reasonable calculated risk at
this stage of the game, but it's an all-or-nothing pick. If
Glenn stays with the team as Favre's #1 target, he should catch 80
balls for 1100 yards and 9-10 TDs, besting the highs for any
Packers receiver in 2001. Production like that will get you
drafted in the mid-second round of FanEx.
On the other hand, if he doesn't continue on his current path,
he'll likely be out of football and this pick will be looked at as
the bust of the draft. It's a chance I'm willing to take.
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4.11WR
Terry Glenn
By Guest David Gonos of FantasyRef.com
At this point, you begin to pick the non-superstars at the deep
positions of wide receiver and running back. Previously
injured or RBBC type backs begin to drop here as does the second
tier of the good wide receivers. That's exactly what Glenn
is: second tier.
Although I have four of the next five WRs selected rated higher
than Glenn at this point, I can't argue with the pick as they all
become interchangeable at some point. With Glenn, you have
the possibility of a breakout season as he finally escapes New
England... with a ring. And now has HOFer Brett Favre
looking to him as his new No. 1 target, and we all know what that
can do for a fella... Then again, Drew Bledsoe's no slouch.
Mainly, a Glenn owner at this spot is hoping for his mental
troubles and lingering injuries to pass him by. I like Kevin
Johnson or Plaxico Burress here, after all Glenn's never scored
more than 6 TDs in a season.
4.11WR
Terry Glenn
By Guest Becky Ardiff of Chicks
on Football
As a Patriots fan, I never thought I would see the day I would
come out in support of Terry Glenn. He was an underachieving
locker room virus for years in New England. However, I believe
this will be one of those situations in which a change in scenery
revives a career.
There is no denying Glenn's phenomenal athletic ability. He has
been performing at a high level in mini-camp and appears motivated
to put his past behind him. The Packers have obviously put their
faith and confidence in Glenn. More importantly, Brett Favre has
expressed confidence and excitement over Glenn.
Glenn will be partnered with one of the better quarterbacks to
ever play the game. Favre proved last season he still has a lot of
fire left in his gun. Glenn and Favre could become one of the
league's most feared twosomes. Glenn also has the benefit of a
strong running game in Ahman Green, which he has not had for years
in New England.
Yes, Glenn is always a gamble, but his upside is definitely worth
the risk. Glenn may very well be one of the top five fantasy
receivers this season.
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4.12 WR Derrick Mason
By Shannon O'Leary of FanEx
Last year Mason was a top ten receiver in the FanEx scoring
system. He did this while posting zero's in weeks 2-5. When he
came back after the injury he really showed guts as he continued
to make play after play with a high ankle sprain. He was the
number 7 overall receiver and posted the number one stats at his
position over the last 10 weeks. (65 receptions for 959 yards and
8 Touchdowns) Those are numbers you would be happy with for the
whole season.
At this point in the draft I think it is important to look at
players who finished strong. Mason fits the bill. Drafting Mason
means I have top ten potential with the 16th receiver drafted.
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4.12 WR Derrick Mason
By Guest Don Pinchin
Not many team owners I'm aware of would be too happy with Derrick
Mason as their #1 WR but when you have the likes of Marshall Faulk
and Antowain Smith in the backfield and Brett Favre at QB you have
to take your chances on obtaining serviceable starters later in
the draft. And, of course, WR is the deepest position in
fantasy football each year so you can afford to wait
on a WR and still get a very productive player in later rounds.
Derrick Mason is somewhat of an enigma. He has put up very
solid numbers for a couple of years now but is consistently underrated. Hence, his being the 16th WR taken. Even
in a draft with some very highly respected
"experts", like in this draft, good players can slip
through a crack. Team O'Leary is the obvious beneficiary of
some very good luck.
If Mason returns just his averages of the last few years, he will
would be well worth his 4.12 draft slot. Many WRs who live
on reputation or potential, who did not post anywhere near as good
a numbers as Mason, were taken much sooner in the draft.
Sometimes its a good thing to take productivity over potential.
It took fantasy players a few years to catch on to the consistent
effort put forth by Ed McCaffrey year after year but, now he is
considered a fantasy stud. Derrick Mason could very well
fall into that category with another year or two of steady
production. But, what makes Mason such an intriguing pick
is that he also has great upside
potential.
If Eddie George, Steve McNair and Derrick Mason can all stay
healthy for a full season, Mason has potential to post top 10 type
WR numbers again. In which case, he would be a steal at this
late of a draft position and with additional press coverage he could
very well be a Pro Bowl caliber WR this year. Worst case
scenario, Mason represents a solid, productive, and undervalued WR
but, if things fall his way, which they very well could, he could
be on the verge of a great breakout type of year with Pro Bowl
potential.
Low risk, high reward. Good pick by Team O'Leary.
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