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FanEx Analysis
Draft
Review
| Rules | Transactions
Round 3
   
  
  
Draft Rounds
1
| 2 | 3
| 4 | 5
| 6 | 7
| 8 | 9
| 10 | 11
| 12 | 13
| 14 | 15
| 16
3.01 RB Antowain Smith
By Shannon O'Leary of FanEx
I had to ponder this pick for a good couple of
hours. I like Rod Smith here, but am concerned with his stress
fracture. I also am tempted to take RBs Jamal Lewis or Duce
Staley, but once again recovering from injuries is never a sure
thing. Therefore, I have decided to go with the safest pick
I see on the board and snag Antowain Smith. Smith is the clear cut
starter for the Patriots. He was the seventh place scorer among
running backs in the FanEx last year. Another 1200 yds and 10 TDs
would be fine by me. I was also impressed with Smith hard nose
running in the post season.
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3.01
RB Antowain Smith
By Guest Dan Jiacopello
O'Leary now has a team of Faulk,
Favre, and ASmith, after he can get some WRs, he is on his way.
It would of been hard for me to pass up on some of the other
position players that Shannon did, but Antowain Smith is
definitely the safest pick he could have made here!
A lot of
people are afraid to take him after his great showing last season,
but I don't know why? His numbers shouldn't be that far off
from last year, I don't see anything that had a huge negative
impact that happened this off-season, he is getting up there
though. Even though posting great numbers last season, 1200
yards about and 12 td's....... he only carried the ball 287 times,
in games where he got the ball 20+ times like he should, he did
very well. Maybe they will see this and make an adjustment
and give him the ball more often.
3.01
RB Antowain Smith
By Guest Louis Grippo
Where can you get a running
back that ran for 1349 yards and scored 13 touchdowns in 2001 and
currently is the undisputed starter on a defending Super Bowl
championship team? Right at the top of the third round! Even
though there were several good receivers still available, I think
that Shannon made the right pick in drafting Antowain Smith.
Starting running backs on good teams are hard to come by and you
cannot pass one up like him at this point in the draft.
Smith had a breakout year in 2001, and while there is some doubt
as to whether he can repeat his gaudy totals from last year, keep
in mind that the Pats have done nothing to prevent Smith from
duplicating (or at least coming close) to his 2001 totals. A more
experienced Tom Brady, combined with the likes of receivers David
Patten, Troy Brown, and newcomer Donald Hayes, and the
improvements made at tight end, should enable the Pats to move the
ball better and open up running lanes for Smith. This should not
only help his yardage total but also put the Pats closer to the
goal line giving Smith, the Pats goal line back, ample
opportunities to score.
If you are worried about Smith not getting enough carries, think
again. His backups, J.R. Redmond and Kevin Faulk, are not threats
to hawk any significant portion of his carries. Faulk is a third
down back and Redmond is strictly a back up. As Smith is also the
goal line back, he will not get pulled when they get close to
paydirt. More importantly, the Pats coaching staff knows that in
nine of New England's eleven wins last year, Smith carried the
pigskin over 20 times while in all five of their losses, he did
not break the 20 carry barrier. The Pats staff won't hesitate to make
Smith their featured runner and realize the value of a strong
running game to their young, developing, albeit Super Bowl MVP QB,
Tom Brady. They committed to Smith early last year and he came
through in a big way. The Pats staff have confidence in Smith.
Smith has confidence in himself.
Injuries, poor offensive line play, and the lack of a commitment
to a primary ball carrier, hampered Smith his last two years in
Buffalo. The Pats offensive line, thought to be a major team
weakness last year, was surprisingly effective in 2001. With
another year together, they should only improve. As the Pats have
committed to Smith, the main obstacle to Smith duplicating last
year's totals is his ability to stay healthy. If he can do this,
he is perfectly capable of putting up numbers similar to last
year. One should remember that as a rookie with the Bills, Smith
scored eight touchdowns. Expect Smith to play a major role
in the Pats playoff hopes, where the running game is so crucial to
the success of their conservative offensive philosophy
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3.02 RB Michael Bennett
By TC Cannon of Fantasy Asylum
Twist and shout. Here is a situation
where my personal preferences placed second to fantasy insight. 'Emmitt
the Great' is undrafted. He's a fav of mine. Yet.. ESmith will
beat the odds if he's a top-15 fantasy back. I just don't dare
promote him as a better RB2.
Insight says RB Michael Bennett is a better choice than ESmith or
Bettis or Barber. Last year at this time, we all read and re-read than
Bennett was a Robert Smith clone - smart and bullet fast. He
seemed to lack only goal line strength. However, until December, Bennett was a
common rookie. He quietly rushed for 630 yards, scoring
three times, while missing four games with an ankle injury.
When he returned from that injury, the former first- rounder gave
us a glimpse into the future. He somewhat established himself as a
breakaway threat in the latter half of his rookie campaign.
Some drafters will see the names Culpepper and Moss on the Vikings
roster and avoid the unproven Bennett. Be assured that FF owners and NFL defenders will know Bennett's name very soon.
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3.02
RB Michael Bennett
By Guest Terry Martin
What I saw in the 2000
Bennett was somewhat different from what TC viewed. When there
was a running lane, the rookie ran thru it successfully. When
there was not a hole, he went no where. He also seemed a so-so
rookie even after the injury.
In forecasting the rusher's future, TC and I again see the same
thing - fine potential. He just sees more of it than I do.
Bennett is certainly not a JR Redmond avoid-him type player, but
he's not yet up to Tiki Barber standards.
3.02
RB Michael Bennett
By Guest Craig Heaton
Under the circumstances, I have to agree with the selection of
RB Michael Bennett. Yes, I know that the Vikes seem to be a team
on the decline. Yes, I know they lost a key weapon & leader
in WR Cris Carter. Yes, I know that the OL is questionable. Yes,
I know that Culpepper steals his share of rushing TDs. However,
Bennett is too explosive of a RB to pass up at this point in the
draft, especially as a RB2.
If rookie Bryant McKinnie can step in immediately at LT and stabilize
the OL, Bennett could be in store for a breakout season. With
Moss getting double and triple teamed on a regular basis, expect
Bennett to see some daylight in the middle of the field on his
way to a 1200 yds, 8-10 td season (provided he stays healthy of
course!). I also like the big play potential he provides on any
given play.
All that being said, I do worry a bit about having 2 gambles in
the backfield as both Davis and Bennett come with plenty of
risk. I would have probably gone with the Warner-to-Holt
connection here or possibly my choice for rookie of the
year.....rookie RB TJ Duckett, especially after Jamal Anderson
gets the axe after June 1st. BTW- don't be worried about the
presence of Dunn....the TDs are Duckett's for the taking and is
the type of bruising back that Coach Reeves loves.
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3.03 RB Jerome Bettis
By William Del Pilar | Ryan Bonini of KFFL
As we discussed in the second round,
we have a real tough time starting off without two safe,
dependable running backs every year and we're happy to solve that
problem with the selection of RB Jerome Bettis, who is entering
his seventh year with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Each of the past few seasons we've all heard (and often said to
ourselves), "The 'Bus' has lost a wheel." or "The
'Bus' is running out of gas." Watching him play last year,
that was anything but the truth until his injury. Bettis, who has
been remarkably durable during his career, may have missed five
games for the first time in his career, but he looked rock solid
before that. In 11 games, he rushed for 1,078 yards (97.5 jpg) but
only managed 4 TDs. The three years previous, he averaged 6
TDs per season. We may not be talking a TD machine here, but the
potential for at least 6 TDs this year exists as he's simply too
powerful to bring down near the goal line. While the scoring
results were less than ideal, the two things that stand out are:
1) his 4.8 yards per carry -- his best since 1993 -- and 2) the
Steelers' improved passing game that takes pressure off of Bettis
and opens up running lanes because defenses are now forced to play
honest against Pitt.
Further breaking down the numbers, in the Steelers' nine wins that
Bettis played in the averaged a very dominating 5.0 yards per
carry and continued to pound the ball at 4.8 yards per carry when
looking at his 16th-plus carry. This clearly shows he did not tire
as the game and touches went along. This man is a workhorse. There's
no denying that. Had he made it through the entire season, we
would have been looking at a 1,562-yard rusher and probably
someone that would have gone in the first or early second round of
this draft. Those types of numbers and production are tough to
argue. In the 11 games he played in last year, Bettis rushed for
better than 100-yards 5 times (45 percent) and had 2 150-plus yard
games. Injury issues aside, does this sound like an RB that's out
of gas? As mentioned, an improving passing game behind QB
Kordell Stewart will only help continue to bolster his chances and
the Steelers' offensive line returns almost completely intact.
Even if the passing game!
does not improve, Bettis has proven he can still carry the
load.
On the negative side, this will be Bettis' tenth year in the
league and he's averaged 268.6 carries per season. That's a lot of
mileage on a 5'11", 255-pound power running back. The shelf
life of pounding backs is rarely that long in the NFL because of
the abuse they take. The five games he missed with the groin
injury could be the telltale sign that his abuse is catching up
with him. With that in mind, we expect or at least hope for one
more productive year out of the Bus. However, when comparing
Bettis to the other available backs at this point -- RBs Garrison
Hearst, Emmitt Smith, Duce Staley and others -- Bettis is arguably
the safest selection, has a solid track history and is the nucleus
of a very solid team.
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3.03
RB Jerome Bettis
By Guest Don Pinchin
Team KFFL has the makings of being
very competitive at this early stage of the draft. In a
highly competitive league, such as this one, dependable RB
production is of paramount importance. The selection of
Jerome Bettis solidifies their RB tandem (with Ahman Green).
The "Bus" is not given to flashy highlight film
production but if you are willing to take very solid and
dependable production game in and game out you will find yourself
in a very good position at the end of the season. Jerome
Bettis reminds me a lot of Ed McCaffrey in that he is very steady,
puts up solid numbers week after week but always seems to be
somewhat unappreciated.
Bettis got off to a great start last year until he went down with
his injury. This could very well be a sign that his age is
creeping up on him. RBs don't tend to roll down the hill, they
fall off the cliff when the grains in the hourglass come to an end
so this pick is not without some risk. But, Bettis has
always been very dependable and not prone to long stretches of
inactivity due to injury so I expect that he will bounce back
for at least one more year of quality production.
One of the main reasons Bettis got off to such a great start last
year was because Kordell Stewart finally figured out how to be an
NFL QB and Plaxico
Burress seemed to step up and make himself into a potential Pro
Bowl WR, after a somewhat mediocre start to his NFL career.
I'm sure both of them
will be coming into this season with a ton of confidence.
With the added offense Pittsburgh displayed last season, defenses
were not be able to stack
the line against the "Bus" which lead to the
"Bus" finding some real sweet holes. I expect
nothing less than that from him this year as well.
All-in-all this pick solidifies what could be a very productive
core of players for Team KFFL.
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3.04 WR Torry Holt
By David Dodds of Footballguys.com
As the RB panic continues, I feel it
is time to switch gears and get a good WR. Considered the
following players: Rod Smith, Torry Holt, Joe Horn, Jimmy
Smith, Isaac Bruce and Keyshawn Johnson.
I like everyone on this list, but the guy that intrigues me the
most is Torry Holt. He finished last season with 81
receptions for 1363 receiving yards and 7 TDs. The year
before he posted 82-1635-6.
He is entering his 4th season and at age 26 has huge upside with
the pass happy Rams. Isaac Bruce (the supposed number 1
receiver on the Rams) saw his production slip badly last season
and he finished his last three games with a total of just 7
catches for 87 yards and 0 TDs.
In those same last 3 games, Holt posted 20 catches for 386 yards
and 2 TDs. Look for Holt to emerge this season as the clear
#1 receiver in STL.
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3.04
WR Torry Holt
By Guest John Georgopoulos of GridironGrumblings
I love Holt with this pick! Holt has been
steadily improving and seems poised for a quantum leap in
production in 2002. Holt seems to be the complete package at WR--
not only are his skills top-notch, but he's in a pass-first system
that features both a top 3 QB *and* RB.
My guess is that 2002 will be the year that Holt sprints past
Bruce as the first option in the Rams' aerial attack.
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3.05 WR Rod Smith
By Chris Dolfi of FanEx
I had toyed with the idea of
grabbing a QB at this spot, but I've never been a big proponent of
grabbing a QB early unless you are going to get one of the top 3,
and since that won't happen, I'll stick to my guns and pass
on the QB here as well. I'll get more of a value pick in the
next round than I would picking a QB here.
That leaves me to fill my biggest need right now - WR. This
decision as a tough one between some of Fantasy Football's biggest
WR names - names like Smith, Smith, and Bruce. Not a law
firm, but certainly 3 individuals that will make you pay if you
don't watch them carefully.
I decided to pass on Bruce, since last year showed us just how
effective Tory Holt was in cutting into Bruce's numbers.
That leaves me with Rod or Jimmy. With Rod's injury at the
end of last year, most owners have some concern with how he will
perform in 2002, myself included. That should have pointed
me to Jimmy Smith - and really, how can you go wrong with a guy
that was #2 in catches in the league with 112, 8 TDs, and 4th in
receiving yards with 1373? But loading up on Jaguars was NOT
my idea of how to build a winning team. So, I'm willing to
take the injury risk that accompanies Rod Smith, along with his
tremendous upside.
Rod lead the NFL in catches last year with 113, and proved he
could make things happen even without a strong second WR like
"Easy" Ed McCaffrey to draw attention away from him.
He plays in Mike Shanahan's offense, which certainly knows how to
make use of Smith as shown by the huge numbers he's put up in TDs,
yards, and catches in the past 3 years. And the Broncos 8-8
finish last year should have them playing a nice
middle-of-the-road schedule, which can't hurt either. With
McCaffrey gone, Terrell Davis apparently injury prone, and Griese
not wanting to chance too many runs for fear of landing on the
injury list, Rod Smith is the best scoring threat on the Broncos
and I'm happy to get someone of his caliber at 3.05.
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3.05
WR Rod Smith
By Guest Jym Hansen
Rod Smith is a great WR. He will produce
very nicely. If he stays healthy, he will produce over 80
receptions, 8 TDs, and 1000 yards. However, that's a big if.
With Fred Taylor, injury has to be a big concern, I would
like more stability at this high of a pick. Rod Smith is a huge
injury concern.
Not taking Jimmy Smith here was a great move. He produces
most of his points in a few games and at the early part of the
season. Jimmy Smith is a fantasy disappointment by the end
of the season.
With QB being seen as a weakness, Donovan McNabb seems like a
stable, high potency pick here. He is right there with the
Top 5 QBs. I would place him above Favre with less anxiety
than Culpepper. He was huge at the end of the season, and
was even bigger during the playoffs. Reid has finally
figured out that they need to let him run the show. Rod
Smith is not a blown pick, but I see a missed opportunity here.
McNabb seems like a star at a thin position when WR is so deep.
3.05
WR Rod Smith
By Guest Jeff Revill
WR Rod Smith is a solid
starting fantasy WR with a proven track record. He played 15
games last year and racked up over 1300 yards and 11 scores.
Even with Ed McCaffrey back in the line-up, Smith has shown that
he is an every week starter on most fantasy rosters. He's
fairly durable, and not a health gamble. Picking up Smith in
the 3rd round is a superior pick in my opinion. In most 2002
fantasy drafts I expect him to go somewhere around this point or
even higher. Good Pick!!
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3.06 WR Isaac Bruce
By Jerome Hickerson of
TalkFootball.com
Here’s
a guy who plays on one of the most prolific offenses in NFL
history, a guy who has averaged 1270 yards and 9 TDs the last
three seasons. Indeed,
his numbers fell off a bit last season, with only 64 receptions
for 1129 yards and 6 scores.
There are many who will question whether Bruce is fading, and who
might point out that Torry Holt is now the #1 guy with
St.
Louis
.
And I’d point out that even Holt’s number last season we’re
much different than Bruce’s, and even Holt’s yardage dipped in
2001 from 2000 while his scoring production only increased by a
single TD.
In
St.
Louis
,
everyone scores. In any given season, a guy’s numbers might
spike upward. But as longs as a player remains healthy and on the
field, production is as guaranteed as anything in this sport.
I’m
pleased to add Bruce’s steady production to my roster of
Edgerrin James and Daunte Culpepper.
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3.06
WR Isaac Bruce
By Guest Tony Shek
With the number of tier 2
receivers on the board, I myself probably would have suggested TE
Gonzo on this pick. There are a number of middling RBs left over
for a reason. Even though the only teams without 2 RBs pick
between now till Hickerson's next selection, I suspect many would
still be available next time around. If not Gonzo, then my choice
would have been Isaac Bruce to pair with this Culpepper/James
team.
Bruce doubters will point to Holt's emergence and declining TD
totals. The Rams share their many scores with that explosive
offense leading to some boom/ bust Sundays that will help
Hickerson with the given scoring format. Boom weeks are
greatly rewarded while bust weeks have a lessened effect.
Bruce's average yards per catch has steadily increased. And
without Az Hakim, I look for Bruce to get an increased workload
thrown his way as Wilkins has proved shoddy so far. Increased
receptions, yardage, and TDs, what more could you ask for?
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3.07 QB Aaron Brooks
By John Hansen of The
Guru Report
Although I needed a WR and there
were a few good ones still available, I know I'll still be able to
get 2-3 solid WRs after this pick, so I tried to stay ahead of the
curve with a QB in case the remaining 2-3 good ones were gone when
it got back to me. Since my pick one of them (McNabb) did
go. In my eyes are roughly 6-7 can't miss QBs this year.
If you miss out on one of them, especially in this format in which
you can't make in-season pickups, one might be screwed.
With an upgraded supporting cast, a year under his belt, and in an
offense I feel will be much more pass-oriented, Brooks is poised
to have a huge fantasy season. It would not surprise me at
all if he winds up as a top-3 fantasy QB this year.
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3.07
QB Aaron Brooks
By Guest Erik Sabadie
This pick ultimately came down to two players for Guru John
Hansen - Brooks or McNabb. Both have the potential to post
elite QB numbers, while the RB & WR crop has moved on to the
2nd or 3rd tier. Brooks scored roughly 205 FF points last
year to McNabb's 227 (a rough calculation on my part using FanEx
scoring).
It's hard to project a big increase in McNabb's numbers this year
- the only significant offensive change is the injury to
Buckhalter, and you have to figure the Eagles will fill that hole,
either with a veteran free agent, or rookie Brian Westbrook.
The woeful Cardinal defense is now out of the division, and
Clayton Gray's schedule analysis has Philly facing tougher pass
defenses this year.
The Saints have had several major off-season events. One,
realignment has taken the 49ers & Rams away from the Saints
(Brooks threw 6 TDs against the Rams last year), and replaced them
with Tampa Bay's notoriously stout defense. Two, Ricky
Williams is in Miami (teams may stack the pass a bit more until
Deuce McCallister proves himself, which shouldn't take long).
And three, Brooks will no longer have to worry about his personal
belongings in his locker, as Albert Connell is out and rookie
combine phonon Daunte Stallworth (is that a great receiver name or
what?) is in.
In the end, Hansen couldn't really couldn't go wrong between these
2 players. I would have given McNabb a slight edge, but let
it be known I'm a Philly fan, and my combined record for the last
5 years in the Nutmeg FFL is 22-43 (I think I can only blame the
first 1 or 2 seasons on being an expansion team!).
3.07
QB Aaron Brooks
By Guest Andrew Hecox
Although he went higher than he probably will in most drafts,
Hansen may have picked this season's top scoring quarterback.
This pick is a prime example of why there is no need to spend a
first or second round pick on the position.
The Saints are clearly transforming themselves from a power
running offense to a pass-first unit, highlighted by the change
from running back Ricky Williams to Deuce McAllister and the
drafting of wide receiver Donte Stallworth.
McAllister is a shifty runner and an outstanding pass receiver who
can be shifted out wide in four and five receiver sets. More
importantly, with his injury history at Ole Miss, the team may
want to protect McAllister from too much between the tackles
action. With Stallworth providing a great deep threat, the
Saints will be a poor man's version of Minnesota's record breaking
1998 unit (Randy Moss's first season).
With offensive coordinator Mike McCarthey and his background in
the West Coast offense, this team will be an aggressive group with
a pass first emphasis. Brooks was a solid starter last year
and could be this year's big surprise.
This was the probably the best pick of the third round and with LaDainian
Tomlinson and Stephen Davis in the backfield, Hansen probably has
put together the top draft so far.
3.07
QB Aaron Brooks
By Guest Clayton Gray
It's hard to argue with Aaron Brooks at this
stage of the FAD draft. The consensus top two QBs
remaining (Brooks and Donovan McNabb) are of similar fantasy
potential, so picking one just comes down to personal
preference. There's no fault with taking Aaron Brooks.
He is a fairly safe selection.
Other plausible options included the tight end
Tony Gonzalez (who was selected at 3.09) or a WR. Gonzalez
is still the top TE in fantasy football, and it's always nice to
have the top whatever position on your roster. However, it
could be argued that there are a few TEs around that have closed
the gap on Gonzalez. He may no longer be the slam dunk
difference maker he has been recently. There are a few WRs
left that have the potential to finish among the top
five at the position. However, they could just as easily
finish out of the top ten as WRs are a fairly difficult position
to predict. There will be plenty of time later to take a
few shots at WR.
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3.08 RB Emmitt Smith
By Chris Rito of FF
Mastermind
and Carlos Panizo of STATS,
Inc.
Obviously, with our focus on QB-WR value in the first two rounds,
we really had to consider the best available RB here. Although if
Rod Smith had fallen.... There are a handful of RBs we have rated
about evenly here, and some even have larger upside than the
predictable Emmitt. However, we felt that the others were more
likely to last until 4.05 or later, and so we could get two of
them (if we wish) by taking Emmitt now.
Emmitt is obviously chasing Walter Payton's record, but with few
exceptions over his career, he has also been a TD machine. We
anticipate that last year's TD total was an aberration and that he
will return to his scoring ways. Also, the Dallas D has been
greatly improved (and actually was not as bad as many thought in
2001), and a better D often makes for more opportunities for RBs.
You can pencil the dependable one in for a solid 1000 yards and
hopefully 10 scores in 2002 - when waiting this long for a RB#1,
you have to be pleased with that.
Several drafters have mentioned Emmitt in their analyses recently.
Much like Priest Holmes earlier, we took this as a sign that
others may be interested soon and so we drafted him here. |
3.08
RB Emmitt Smith
By Guest Ryan Early
Personally, I don't understand this selection at all.
Certainly the team decided to stay out of the RB run by selecting
Manning and Harrison with their first two picks (which I approve
of) and have now panicked to grab a RB now that almost every other
team will be turning their attentions to other positions.
First off, I question taking a RB with this pick. The run is
over. Every decent runner has been taken (plus a few not so
decent ones) and instead of taking an excellent player at another
position like a TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Joe Horn, or WR Jimmy Smith,
they take a 6th round caliber runner.
The only reason to take a runner here is if you ranked one RB that
remained far ahead of the following two and feared Greg Kellogg,
who had yet to draft a RB, would take him with one of his next two
picks. That could be defendable, but I have a hard time
believing that Emmitt Smith meets that criteria. If any
runner does, it should be William Green, who is the best rookie
runner on a Cleveland team ready to make a dramatic leap in the
win-loss column.
Emmitt turned 33 on May 15th. That's the kiss of death for
running backs. From an article by Micky Spagnola that
appeared on DallasCowboys.com, Walter Payton played his last
season at the age of 33. He ran for 533 yards, a 3.7
average, and had more fumbles (five) than touchdowns (four).
Only two RBs (John Riggins and Franco Harris) have had a 1,000
yard season at 33 or older in the entire history of the league.
Smith is most likely in his final season. He is still
playing solely to catch Walter Payton's career rushing record.
If he didn't have a chance for that record, the Cowboys would have
gone with a younger, cheaper, and quite frankly better, player by
now. Smith needs 540 rushing yards to break the record.
To think he'll get much more than that is more wishful thinking
than honest analysis, especially if the Cowboys are winning games
since getting a win will take preference over extending Smith's
rushing record. His rushing yards and average per rush have
fallen for three straight years, his touchdown totals for four
seasons, culminating in just 3 scores in 2001. He has had
only 28 receptions over the last two seasons combined.
Running backs year-by-year rushing totals tend to look like a bell
curve, but with a rather sharp drop at the end.
However, there is also an argument for Emmitt having a bounce back
season. The Cowboys could get more rushing opportunities and
scoring chances with an improved defense, though improved play
from the quarterback position is what the team needs more than
anything else. Team owner Jerry Jones recently said he hoped
Emmitt would get 20 carries per game this season.
Unfortunately, I don't put much faith in Jones' preseason banter.
It rarely has anything to do with what happens on the field.
At this point in the draft, there are ten other running backs
still left whom I would have selected before taking Emmitt.
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3.09 Tony Gonzalez
By Greg Kellogg of Komments
Tony Gonzalez is the best Tight End in the NFL. Period.
Whenever you enter a draft you try to fill your team with the best
people possible. Gonzalez fits that theme perfectly.
Since 1999 Gonzo has averaged 81 receptions for 990 yards and 9
TDs. These numbers are superb for a TE and very good even
for a WR. With Gonzo on board, I am literally getting a WRs
production from my TE position.
But better yet, he is steady enough that I really don't need to
grab a backup. Gonzo has missed one game in his five-year
career and has started every game since his rookie season.
Last year he scored five or more points in nine of his 16 games.
He failed to score only once and hit double-figures twice.
In a format like the FAD offers, one of your primary concerns
should be in your placement of backups. Everyone must start
one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one PK and one DF with one float
starter that can be a RB, WR or TE. Tight Ends will
virtually never get a start because of their typically low
scoring. So it becomes a choice of taking a backup player at
positions like TE who will (maybe) get you some points on your
starter's bye week and possibly out-score your starter a couple of
weeks or taking a backup at a different position that has a higher
potential of outscoring the players at his position.
With Gonzalez, I am likely to gain little more than 10 or 15
points from a backup (assuming he stays healthy). With an
extra QB, RB or WR I could get that much improved production in
one or two weeks.
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3.09
TE Tony Gonzalez
By Guest Lenny Pappano of Draft
Sharks
Is he a genius or a (corn) flake?
Well, Mr. Kellogg is – if nothing else – having a
thought-provoking draft. After tabbing stud WRs Moss and Owens in
the first two rounds, he picks up the NFL’s premiere TE in Tony
Gonzalez. Though Marcus Pollard and the top-tier of fantasy TEs
closed the gap on Gonzalez last year, the Chiefs best receiver is
still a top-25 talent in most drafts – including this one.
He’s young, talented, and is likely playing for a new contract
at the end of this year. The addition of Johnnie Morton should
relieve Gonzalez of the constant double-teams he drew last season,
plus QB Trent Green should fare better in his second year under
the same offensive system.
Back to Team Kellogg which has three stud players, but no RB thus
far. Don’t snicker. Kellogg is following the tested strategy of
"Value Based Drafting," and may yet have the last laugh.
If he can grab one surprise RB, and a fairly decent QB, this team
is going to put up some points. Stay tuned. His next three picks
could be crucial.
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3.10 WR Joe Horn
By Duane Cahill of Pitt
Tribune-Review
For my fantasy football lesson du jour, I would like to point out
the advantage that you will have in your draft if you track not
only which players have been selected, but also by whom.
FanEx makes it easy by tracking the players for you on the
website, but you should always keep track at your draft.
Example: it should be noted that between this selection and my
next, only Tony Holm and Emil Kadlec have picks. Each of
them has two running backs on his roster, so it is unlikely that
either will take another running back.
For this pick, my choice was either for a WR1 or a RB2. If
Tony and Emil begin filling their other roster spots, any running
back that I can get at this spot will still be available at 4.03.
Joe Horn now has two consecutive 80-catch, 1250 yard, 8 TD
seasons, so we know that he's not a one-season wonder. With
the continued emergence of Aaron Brooks and the additions of
Jerome Pathon and Donte Stallworth, look for Horn to be at least
as productive, if not more so.
I'm unconcerned about Horn's threat to hold out if the Saints
don't renegotiate his contract. If it were August and
training camp had opened without him, it might raise a red flag
for me, but in May I have confidence that the Saints and Horn will
reach an agreement.
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3.10
WR Joe Horn
By Guest Steve Modtland
How good this pick will be depends
on several things - The development of Aaron Brooks, whether
Deuce McAllister can become a force at RB to take the pressure off
of Brooks. The Saints WRs need betterment, too. Rookie Donte
Stallworth coming in and making a difference at the #2 WR spot and
could help take the pressure off of Joe Horn. If so defenses can't
double team Horn.
In May, Horn appears to be a gamble. If everything falls in to
place, he could produce some nice fantasy numbers.
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3.11 QB Donovan McNabb
By Tony Holm of The
Prognosticator
I was looking at WR here as there are
a few decent ones still sitting around and narrowed my choice down
to 3. When I couldn't decide, and Emil at most can only take
two of them (I expect him to take 1), I decided to look elsewhere.
On my draft board, QB Donovan McNabb just stuck out like a sore
green thumb. I know this is not the VBD pick as I tend to
draft for value using my own formula, but I'm not running a VBD
for the FAD this year.
I was awe struck watching Donovan McNabb in the playoffs last year
and perhaps that alone made me select him here. I watched
him single handedly change the direction of a game against quality
opponents. No other player impressed me as much as McNabb
did.
As I sat in my easy chair, curling brews and munching wings, every
time the Eagles went on offense I marveled at what McNabb would do
for an encore as the guy pulled play after play out of his jock.
He's down right scary for opposing defenses to plan for as he can
do it all. There are precious few players in the NFL who ARE
the offense; Donovan McNabb is certainly one of them.
McNabb has taken monstrous jumps in his game each season he's been
in the league. From seeing the kind of player he was through
the playoffs, a complete season of that simply boggles the mind.
McNabb passed for 3,233 yards, 25 TDs and only 12 INTs to whom?
They don't have WRs to speak of, yet there are the numbers.
Unlike a Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning or Jeff Garcia, those numbers
are all McNabb. He was the 2nd best rushing QB in the league
to boot.
The Eagles receivers only got better last year and there is still
room to bring in additional help to get the job done. I
suspect the Eagles will sign some veteran WR help before the start
of the season. Perhaps a Terence Mathis type player?
The Eagles are a playoff team now and they'll do what needs to be
done which means, making sure McNabb has all the outlets he needs.
A dominant fantasy season in 2002 is certainly not out of the
question and in my mind, probable.
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3.11
QB Donovan McNabb
By Guest Thom Eads
I would like to be able to applaud
the pure brilliance of this pick. I really would. However, to me
this appears to be a case of a pick slapping you
across the face screaming, "Yes, I really am still
available!". This was to
me a very obvious choice. Tony is right, there are precious few
players who
are the offense, and yes, McNabb is one of them.
There is no doubt that McNabb will only get better with time
and that
particularly applies to his fantasy numbers as better players are
assembled
around him. The improvement that McNabb has shown makes 3800 yards
and 35
combined TDs attainable, if not likely.
I spoke in the Kurt Warner analysis about not losing your
draft in the
first three rounds. This is a pick that could have been as early
as 2.08 in
my mind and still had the same things said. It is a shame I can't
say that
about Mr. Holm's two earlier picks of Priest Holmes and Eddie
George, both
risky and perhaps even reaches in my mind. I still think this team
needs improvement to be a factor in this league, despite the absolute
solidness of
this particular selection.
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3.12 WR Keyshawn Johnson
By Emil Kadlec of FF
Pro Forecast
The only thing keeping Johnson
from being considered among the ranks of Randy Moss, Marvin
Harrison and Terrell Owens is the fact he only scored one
touchdown last season. ... Think that my change this year? It will
if new head coach Jon Gruden has his way.
In fact, coming up with ways to get Johnson the ball in the end
zone is right at the top of Gruden's "to-do" list this
season. "Obviously he can be a force. He's proven in his
career he can dominate a game,'' Gruden recently said of the
former first-round draft pick. "But we've got to get him in
the end zone.
"He caught [106 passes] and only one time in the end zone.
That is intolerable. We're going big-game fishing with him, get
him in the end zone and score points.''
While Johnson ranked first in the NFC and fourth overall with his
106 receptions, the other receivers over 100 had at least five TD
catches. All of the top 20 wide receivers in the NFC had more
touchdowns than the 6-4, 212-pound Johnson.
Nonetheless, Gruden continues to talk up his talent and potential
to be more damaging to defenses.
"He is a big guy and a great competitor," Gruden said.
"When the ball is in flight, he has a history of attacking it
and making the big play. This is a physically talented guy we've
got to get more out of in terms of touchdowns. ..."
That's everything I wanted to hear.
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3.12
WR Keyshawn Johnson
By Guest Louie Genard of Dr
Football
I agree that a WR is the
appropriate position to draft in this spot since Emil has two RBs
with his first 2 picks. However, I think Keyshawn Johnson is a
reach at this pick.
His two years in Tampa Bay have not produced stellar numbers,
especially last year when he only managed 1 TD. Now, I do believe
Gruden will open up the offense so his TD numbers should improve.
However, I would have liked a safer pick. With the likes of WRs
Jimmy Smith, Tim Brown, Eric Moulds, and Darrell Jackson still on
the board, I would have chosen one of these before KJ.
If you are in love with KJ, I would have gambled and tried to
trade down and grab him in the mid-4th round, and maybe trade up
in round 5 to get a top 10 QB with that pick.
3.12
WR Keyshawn Johnson
By Guest Mike MacGregor
of Pro Football
Analysis.com
Not an exciting pick, but I think a solid selection at this point
in the draft. WR Keyshawn Johnson has historically been burdened
with more name recognition than other receivers which led to him
being slightly overvalued in fantasy football circles. The name
recognition coming from being a former #1 overall NFL draft pick,
playing in New York, having a big mouth and writing that book. Oh
that book...
Heading into this season, what do you think of when you think of
Key-mouth, er, Keyshawn? 1 TD. That's right. He scored only 1(!)
TD the entire 2001 season. When we're talking fantasy, that just
is not going to cut it. However, as a result of that unbelievably
poor TD total, it looks like Keyshawn is becoming a little
undervalued.
The guy did catch 106 passes last season. Those catches translated
into nearly 1,300 yards. These rank him 4th and 7th in the league
in those categories respectively. All this and he was saddled with
poor QB play, an overall poor offense with no other receiving
threat for an opposing defense to concern themselves with and an
ultra-conservative coach.
This season things are looking up, starting with the exit of Tony
Dungy and entrance of Jon Gruden. Gruden knows his primary
offensive weapon is Keyshawn, so although the QB is the same
(likely), Gruden will improve the Tampa offense with Keyshawn
being the main beneficiary. Consider that 1 TD an aberration
because Gruden will find ways to get him the ball where it counts
- in the end zone. Keyshawn scored 8 or more TDs in 4 of his 6
seasons in the league and I certainly expect him to do that in
2002.
Keyshawn is not the most likeable personality in the world, but
you can't question his talent, his work ethic and his desire to
excel. Although some other available receivers like Darrell
Jackson and Eric Moulds may be considered to have more upside than
Keyshawn, there is a lot less risk with this pick of Keyshawn to
finish off the 3rd round. Overall, nice pick Mr. Kadlec.
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